Races · house · 2022 · New Hampshire

house · open seat

Chris Pappas vs The Tarrance Group

← Nebraska house New Hampshire house →

Likely DD +6.3 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets

Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
85% Pappas (D)
15% Group (R)
Win probability
Chris Pappas85% (D)
The Tarrance Group15% (R)
Modelpoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateD +6.3
80% CIR+5.8 → D+18.3
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Model's predicted final margin D +6.3 · 80% CI R+5.8 → D+18.3
Actual result D+8.1 · backtest (race already called)

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

0.0%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

—

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

—

no recent coverage

Where this race stands

Verified

Tilt D · model 85% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+2) suggests Tilt D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+6.2 with an 80% CI ranging from R+5.8 (10th pctile) to D+18.2 (90th pctile), giving D a 85% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · tilt-d

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

D +6.3

80% CI: R +5.8 → D +18.3 · win prob 85%

R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	0
Days to election	passed
Actual result	D+8.1
Residual σ	6.00pt
Generated	7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet

RThe Tarrance Group0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

DChris Pappas0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-12-28

Chris PappasH8NH01210 ↗

Receipts

$5.2M

Disburse

$5.3M

Cash on hand

$113.2K

Debts

Top industries

Health professionals$8.7K

Securities & investment$8.7K

Education$8.6K

Govt employees$7.5K

Internet$7.0K

Top contributors

UNH$11.8K

PURITAN BACKROOM$11.7K

CHARLES AND LYNN SCHUSTERMAN FAMILY PH$11.6K

LAUDER PARTNERS, LLC$11.6K

MCLANE MIDDLETON$9.9K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports

IE total

$38.5M

D side

$17.1M · 45%

R side

$21.4M · 55%

Top spender

NRCC

For / against split

For Pappas $703.2K

Against Leavitt $16.4M

Against Pappas $19.8M

For Leavitt $1.6M

Spender	Side	Amount	Share	Target
NRCC	R	$13.7M	36%	against Chris Pappas
CONGRESSIONAL LEADERSHIP FUND	R	$4.5M	12%	against Chris Pappas
FREEDOM'S FUTURE FUND INC.	R	$1.5M	4%	against Chris Pappas
CULAC THE PAC OF CREDIT UNION NATIONAL ASSOCIATION	D	$401.5K	1%	for Chris Pappas
LCV VICTORY FUND	D	$156.7K	0%	for Chris Pappas

Editorial ratings · 6 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Lean D2

Tilt D1

Tossup3

The Cook Political Report

Tossup

Jun 5

DDHQ

Tossup

Nov 1

The Economist

Tossup

Nov 1

538

Lean D

Oct 31

Inside Elections

Tilt D

Jun 6

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Lean D

Sep 13

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.

Rating timeline

May 11, 2026Likely Dmodel

Verification trail

Polls verified0 / 0deterministic

Polls flagged—none

Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed

FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2022-12-28

Endorsements—nothing to sync

News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News

Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks