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Races · house · 2022 · Nebraska
house · open seat

Tony Vargas vs Don Bacon

← Nebraska houseNebraska house →
Lean RR +2.3 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
35% Vargas (D)
65% Bacon (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin R +2.3 · 80% CI R+14.3 → D+9.7
Actual result R+2.6 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Tilt D · model 65% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+3) suggests Tilt D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+2.3 with an 80% CI ranging from R+14.3 (10th pctile) to D+9.7 (90th pctile), giving R a 65% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · tilt-d
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +2.3
80% CI: R +14.3 → D +9.7 · win prob 35%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultR+2.6
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet
RDon Bacon0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DTony Vargas0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-11-18
Tony VargasH2NE02132 ↗
Receipts
$3.4M
Disburse
$3.4M
Cash on hand
$53.4K
Debts
$0
Top industries
Govt employees$15.4K
Real estate$8.7K
Internet$6.6K
Top contributors
UNMC$26.9K
CHI$14.2K
UNO$9.0K
PERRY REID PROPERTIES$8.7K
UNION PACFIC RAILROAD$8.7K
Don BaconH6NE02125 ↗
Receipts
$3.9M
Disburse
$4.0M
Cash on hand
$14.2K
Debts
$138.3K
Top industries
Securities & investment$8.7K
Casinos / gambling$6.4K
Top contributors
TENASKA$21.9K
KIEWIT$12.1K
BAXTER AUTO GROUP$11.6K
HAWKINS CONSTRUCTION COMPANY$9.3K
CITADEL LLC$8.7K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$13.6M
D side
$6.0M · 44%
R side
$7.6M · 56%
Top spender
NRCC
For / against split
For Vargas $13.4K
Against Bacon $6.0M
Against Vargas $7.2M
For Bacon $445.5K
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
NRCCR$3.9M29%against Tony Vargas
HOUSE MAJORITY PACD$3.7M27%against Don Bacon
CONGRESSIONAL LEADERSHIP FUNDR$3.0M22%against Tony Vargas
DCCCD$2.1M15%against Don Bacon
DEFENDING MAIN STREET SUPERPAC INC.R$585.7K4%against Tony Vargas
LCV VICTORY FUNDD$192.3K1%against Don Bacon
LATINO VICTORY FUNDD$13.3K0%for Tony Vargas
MOVEON.ORG POLITICAL ACTIOND$97.370%for Tony Vargas

Editorial ratings · 6 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Tossup3
Lean R1
Likely R2
The Cook Political Report
Tossup
Oct 31
DDHQ
Likely R
Sep 4
The Economist
Tossup
Nov 4
FiveThirtyEight
Likely R
Sep 5
Inside Elections
Tossup
Aug 31
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Lean R
Nov 1

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Jul 1, 2026Lean Rmodel
May 11, 2026Tossupmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2022-11-18
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks