Races · house · 2022 · North Carolina
house · open seat
Kathy Manning vs Christian Castelli
Where this race stands
VerifiedLikely R · model 82% R
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+9) suggests Likely R.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+5.6 with an 80% CI ranging from R+17.6 (10th pctile) to D+6.4 (90th pctile), giving R a 82% chance of winning.
CITATIONS · likely-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +5.6
80% CI: R +17.6 → D +6.4 · win prob 18%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | passed |
| Actual result | D+8.9 |
| Residual σ | 6.00pt |
| Generated | 7/1/2026 |
Endorsements · 0 total
Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yetDKathy Manning0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RChristian Castelli0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-11-11Christian CastelliH2NC07161 ↗
Receipts
$928.5K
Disburse
$921.8K
Cash on hand
$6.7K
Debts
$340.0K
Top industries
Govt employees$5.4K
Govt employees · $5.4K
- US Navy · $5.4K
Individuals $5.4K · PACs $0
Top contributors
PHILLIPS IND.$11.6K
ENTRUST SERVICES DAB ROTO-ROOTER$11.6K
RAGNAR$8.7K
SAGO CONSTRUCTION CO INC$7.9K
UBS$5.8K
Kathy ManningH8NC13067 ↗
Receipts
$3.0M
Disburse
$3.1M
Cash on hand
$208.4K
Debts
$250.0K
Top industries
Education$21.9K
Education · $21.9K
- Duke University · $9.3K
- Columbia University · $6.8K
- Mit · $5.8K
Individuals $21.9K · PACs $0
Top contributors
DUKE UNIVERSITY$9.3K
SHARE OUR STRENGTH$8.7K
COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY$6.8K
SAMET CORP.$6.8K
PROPANE POWER CORP.$5.9K
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$163.5K
D side
$55.4K · 34%
R side
$108.1K · 66%
Top spender
BLACK AMERICANS MAK…
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BLACK AMERICANS MAKING AMERICA FIRST super pac · boosts R
| R | $51.1K | 31% | for Christian Castelli |
| RANGER PAC pac · boosts R
| R | $50.0K | 31% | for Christian Castelli |
| WORKING AMERICA pac · boosts D
| D | $30.4K | 19% | for Kathy Manning |
| NEXTGEN CLIMATE ACTION COMMITTEE super pac · boosts D
| D | $13.7K | 8% | for Kathy Manning |
| FEMINIST MAJORITY pac · boosts D
| D | $8.8K | 5% | for Kathy Manning |
| SPECIAL OPERATIONS FOR AMERICA super pac · boosts R
| R | $7.0K | 4% | for Christian Castelli |
| PAGE COMMUNICATIONS L.L.C. pac · boosts D
| D | $2.1K | 1% | for Kathy Manning |
| JDCA PAC super pac · boosts D
| D | $229.5 | 0% | for Kathy Manning |
| DEFENDING THE REPUBLIC PAC INC. super pac · boosts R
| R | $2.07 | 0% | for Christian Castelli |
Editorial ratings · 6 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe D2
Safe D · 2 raters
- 538 · Aug 1
- Inside Elections · Aug 24
Likely D4
Likely D · 4 raters
- The Cook Political Report · Feb 22
- DDHQ · Nov 7
- The Economist · Sep 27
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Mar 1
The Cook Political Report
Likely DDDHQ
Likely DThe Economist
Likely D538
Safe DInside Elections
Safe DSabato's Crystal Ball
Likely DDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2022-11-11
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks