Races · house · 2022 · North Carolina
house · open seat
Barbara Gaskins vs Greg Murphy
Where this race stands
VerifiedLikely R · model 99% R
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+10) suggests Likely R.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+22.7 with an 80% CI ranging from R+34.7 (10th pctile) to R+10.7 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.
CITATIONS · likely-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +22.7
80% CI: R +34.7 → R +10.7 · win prob 1%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | passed |
| Actual result | R+33.8 |
| Residual σ | 6.00pt |
| Generated | 7/1/2026 |
Endorsements · 0 total
Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yetRGreg Murphy0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DBarbara Gaskins0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-10-10Greg MurphyH0NC03172 ↗
Receipts
$2.0M
Disburse
$1.4M
Cash on hand
$809.5K
Debts
$0
Top industries
Real estate$11.6K
Real estate · $11.6K
- Kane Realty Corporation · $11.6K
Individuals $11.6K · PACs $0
Lawyers / law firms$7.8K
Lawyers / law firms · $7.8K
- Daughtry Woodard Lawrence & Starling · $7.8K
Individuals $7.8K · PACs $0
Crop production$7.8K
Crop production · $7.8K
- Sanderson Farms · $7.8K
Individuals $7.8K · PACs $0
Top contributors
EAST CAROLINA ANESTHESIA ASSOCIATES$14.8K
ARKANSAS UROLOGY$14.0K
KNOW BIO LLC$13.7K
KANE REALTY CORPORATION$11.6K
TIME INVESTMENTS CORP$11.6K
Barbara Gaskins
Receipts
$95.6K
Disburse
$95.0K
Cash on hand
$683.6
Debts
$0
Top industries
Publishing / news$250
Publishing / news · $250
- Pittsburgh Post Gazette · $250
Individuals $250 · PACs $0
Real estate$250
Real estate · $250
- Carolina Designs Realty · $250
Individuals $250 · PACs $0
Top contributors
SELF-EMPLYED$1.0K
AGM FINANCIAL SERVIOCES$750
AGM FINACIAL SERVICES$750
ACORIO$400
KELLOGG AND EVANS PA$300
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$1.2K
D side
$0 · 0%
R side
$1.2K · 100%
Top spender
NATIONAL RIFLE ASSO…
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NATIONAL RIFLE ASSOCIATION OF AMERICA POLITICAL VICTORY FUND pac · boosts R
| R | $1.2K | 100% | for Greg Murphy |
Editorial ratings · 6 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe R6
Safe R · 6 raters
- The Cook Political Report · Feb 22
- DDHQ · Jul 19
- The Economist · Sep 27
- 538 · Jun 29
- Inside Elections · Mar 17
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Mar 1
The Cook Political Report
Safe RDDHQ
Safe RThe Economist
Safe R538
Safe RInside Elections
Safe RSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe RDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2022-10-10
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks