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Races · house · 2022 · North Carolina
PrimariesThis seat also has primary-season views:Republican primary
house · open seat

Wiley Nickel vs WPA Intelligence

← North Carolina houseNorth Carolina house →
Safe RR +17.9 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
1% Nickel (D)
99% Intelligence (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin R +17.9 · 80% CI R+29.9 → R+5.9
Actual result D+3.2 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Likely R · model 99% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+8) suggests Likely R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+17.9 with an 80% CI ranging from R+29.9 (10th pctile) to R+5.9 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · likely-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +17.9
80% CI: R +29.9 → R +5.9 · win prob 1%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultD+3.2
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet
RWPA Intelligence0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DWiley Nickel0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-11-08
Wiley NickelH2NC14019 ↗
Receipts
$3.7M
Disburse
$3.7M
Cash on hand
$37.0K
Debts
$954.0K
Top industries
Lawyers / law firms$56.9K
Education$8.6K
Internet$6.6K
Top contributors
THE LAW OFFICES OF WILEY NICKEL, PLLC$56.9K
SAS$10.5K
NORTHEASTERN UNIVERSITY$8.6K
LYNN PINKER$7.0K
JM EDWARDS$6.9K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$9.4M
D side
$461.6K · 5%
R side
$8.9M · 95%
Top spender
CONGRESSIONAL LEADE…
For / against split
For Nickel $461.6K
Against Nickel $8.9M
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
CONGRESSIONAL LEADERSHIP FUNDR$5.8M62%against Wiley Nickel
CLUB FOR GROWTH ACTIONR$2.8M30%against Wiley Nickel
LCV VICTORY FUNDD$172.0K2%for Wiley Nickel
AMERICAN LEADERSHIP PACR$141.0K2%against Wiley Nickel
CLIMATE POWER ACTIOND$133.2K1%for Wiley Nickel

Editorial ratings · 6 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Tossup3
Lean R1
Likely R2
The Cook Political Report
Tossup
Feb 22
DDHQ
Likely R
Jul 19
The Economist
Tossup
Sep 27
538
Likely R
Oct 20
Inside Elections
Tossup
Mar 17
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Lean R
Jul 27

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 11, 2026Safe Rmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2022-11-08
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks