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Races · house · 2022 · North Carolina
PrimariesThis seat also has primary-season views:Republican primary
house · open seat

Jasmine Beach-Ferrara vs Differentiators Data

← North Carolina houseNorth Carolina house →
Likely RR +13.6 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
1% Beach-Ferrara (D)
99% Data (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin R +13.6 · 80% CI R+25.6 → R+1.6
Actual result R+9.3 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Lean R · model 99% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+5) suggests Lean R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+13.6 with an 80% CI ranging from R+25.6 (10th pctile) to R+1.6 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · lean-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +13.6
80% CI: R +25.6 → R +1.6 · win prob 1%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultR+9.3
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 3 candidates with no endorsements yet
RDifferentiators Data0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DJasmine Beach-Ferrara0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
LDavid Coatney0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-11-07
Jasmine Beach-FerraraH2NC11155 ↗
Receipts
$2.3M
Disburse
$2.3M
Cash on hand
$2.8K
Debts
$3.0K
Top industries
Education$6.3K
Top contributors
DUKE UNIVERSITY$6.3K
PERKINS COIE$5.8K
KUHN ADVISORS INC.$5.8K
DEE'S CRAFTS INC.$5.8K
SBV WORKFORCE MANAGEMENT$5.8K
David CoatneyOWN COMMITTEE
Receipts
$20.1K
Disburse
$20.1K
Cash on hand
$23.03
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
4SIGHT SUPPLY CHAIN GROUP$400

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$634.0K
D side
$10 · 0%
R side
$634.0K · 100%
Top spender
SIERRA CLUB INDEPEN…
For / against split
For Beach-Ferrara $10
For Edwards $634.0K
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
SIERRA CLUB INDEPENDENT ACTIOND$100%for Jasmine Beach-Ferrara

Editorial ratings · 6 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Likely R1
Safe R5
The Cook Political Report
Safe R
Feb 22
DDHQ
Safe R
Jul 19
The Economist
Likely R
Nov 3
538
Safe R
Jun 29
Inside Elections
Safe R
Mar 17
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Safe R
Mar 1

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Jul 1, 2026Likely Rmodel
Jun 22, 2026Safe Rmodel
May 15, 2026Likely Rmodel
May 11, 2026Safe Rmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2022-11-07
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks