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Races · house · 2022 · Montana
PrimariesThis seat also has primary-season views:Democratic primary·Republican primary
house · open seat

Penny Ronning vs Matt Rosendale

← Montana houseNorth Carolina house →
Safe RR +30.3 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
1% Ronning (D)
99% Rosendale (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin R +30.3 · 80% CI R+42.3 → R+18.3
Actual result R+34.7 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Safe R · model 99% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+15) suggests Safe R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+30.3 with an 80% CI ranging from R+42.3 (10th pctile) to R+18.3 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · safe-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +30.3
80% CI: R +42.3 → R +18.3 · win prob 1%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultR+34.7
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 4 candidates with no endorsements yet
RMatt Rosendale0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DPenny Ronning0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
IGary Buchanan0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
LSam Rankin0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-11-01
Matt RosendaleH4MT00050 ↗
Receipts
$2.3M
Disburse
$1.3M
Cash on hand
$1.2M
Debts
$0
Top industries
Education$11.6K
Casinos / gambling$6.4K
Top contributors
INFORMATION REQUESTED PER BEST EFFORTS$35.4K
TOWN PUMP INC$15.0K
INVESTMENTS LIMITED$11.6K
KOOTENAI RESOURCE CORP.$10.2K
YELLOWSTONE BANK$8.7K
Gary BuchananOWN COMMITTEE
Receipts
$570.3K
Disburse
$570.2K
Cash on hand
$108.53
Debts
$25.0K
Top industries
Health professionals$4.7K
Top contributors
RET$22.0K
DIAMOND CONSTRUCTION$5.8K
BJERKE ARCHITECTS$5.6K
RETIRED -VETERAN$2.9K
BILLINGS CLINIC$2.9K
Penny RonningOWN COMMITTEE
Receipts
$175.8K
Disburse
$175.5K
Cash on hand
$329
Debts
$0
Top industries
Health professionals$5.3K
Education$1.0K
Top contributors
SCL HEALTH$5.1K
MEDICAL IMAGING ASSOCIATES$3.1K
HISTORICAL RESEARCH ASSOCIATES, INC.$2.9K
HOLLAND &HART$2.7K
BILLINGS CLINIC$2.1K
Sam RankinOWN COMMITTEE
Receipts
$31.1K
Disburse
$31.1K
Cash on hand
$16.83
Debts
$0
Top industries
Oil & gas$1.0K
Education$100
Top contributors
RAWSON OIL AND GAS CO$1.0K
KOA$100
LAME DEER SCHOOL DISTRICT$100
BOZEMAN HEALTH$100

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$2.8K
D side
$8.68 · 0%
R side
$2.8K · 100%
Top spender
HOUSE FREEDOM FUND
For / against split
Against Rosendale $8.68
For Rosendale $2.8K
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
HOUSE FREEDOM FUNDR$1.4K51%for Matt Rosendale
DISABLED VETERANS PACR$1.4K49%for Matt Rosendale
PLANNED PARENTHOOD VOTESD$8.680%against Matt Rosendale

Editorial ratings · 6 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Safe R6
The Cook Political Report
Safe R
Nov 15
DDHQ
Safe R
Jul 19
The Economist
Safe R
Sep 27
538
Safe R
Jun 29
Inside Elections
Safe R
Nov 18
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Safe R
Nov 16

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 11, 2026Safe Rmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2022-11-01
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks