NonpartisanIndependent, data-first coverage of US elections — polls, forecasts, and prediction markets, refreshed daily.Updated daily.What's new ↗·Methodology·Send feedback
Races · house · 2022 · Montana
house · open seat

Monica Tranel vs Ryan Zinke

← Mississippi houseMontana house →
Likely RR +12.4 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
2% Tranel (D)
98% Zinke (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin R +12.4 · 80% CI R+24.4 → R+0.4
Actual result R+3.2 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Lean R · model 98% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+5) suggests Lean R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+12.4 with an 80% CI ranging from R+24.4 (10th pctile) to tied (90th pctile), giving R a 98% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · lean-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +12.4
80% CI: R +24.4 → R +0.4 · win prob 2%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultR+3.2
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 3 candidates with no endorsements yet
RRyan Zinke0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DMonica Tranel0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
LJohn Lamb0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-11-30
Monica TranelH2MT02092 ↗
Receipts
$3.1M
Disburse
$3.1M
Cash on hand
$0
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Ryan ZinkeH4MT01041 ↗
Receipts
$6.7M
Disburse
$6.6M
Cash on hand
$110.0K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$3.2M
D side
$1.1M · 36%
R side
$2.0M · 64%
Top spender
MORE JOBS, LESS GOV…
For / against split
For Tranel $9.5K
Against Zinke $1.1M
Against Tranel $1.9M
For Zinke $148.3K
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
MORE JOBS, LESS GOVERNMENTR$1.9M59%against Monica Tranel
BIG SKY VOTERS PACD$1.1M35%against Ryan Zinke
HUNTER ACTION FUND (HAF)R$125.6K4%for Ryan Zinke
FREEDOM'S DEFENSE FUNDR$10.0K0%for Ryan Zinke
PRIORITIES USA ACTIOND$9.6K0%against Ryan Zinke
MONTANANS AGAINST CORRUPTION IN CONGRESSD$9.5K0%for Monica Tranel
NATIONAL RIFLE ASSOCIATION OF AMERICA POLITICAL VICTORY FUNDR$5.5K0%for Ryan Zinke
MONTANA REPUBLICAN STATE CENTRAL COMMITTEER$2.5K0%against Monica Tranel

Editorial ratings · 6 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Lean R3
Likely R3
The Cook Political Report
Lean R
Oct 18
DDHQ
Likely R
Sep 28
The Economist
Likely R
Sep 27
538
Likely R
Nov 7
Inside Elections
Lean R
Oct 6
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Lean R
Oct 18

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 11, 2026Likely Rmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2022-11-30
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks