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Races · house · 2022 · Mississippi
PrimariesThis seat also has primary-season views:Democratic primary·Republican primary
house · open seat

Jerry Kerner vs Mark Strauss

← Mississippi houseMontana house →
Safe RR +37.8 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
1% Kerner (D)
99% Strauss (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin R +37.8 · 80% CI R+49.8 → R+25.8
Actual result R+48.7 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Safe R · model 99% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+21) suggests Safe R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+37.8 with an 80% CI ranging from R+49.8 (10th pctile) to R+25.8 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · safe-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +37.8
80% CI: R +49.8 → R +25.8 · win prob 1%
R+60R+30TIEDD+30D+60
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultR+48.7
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 3 candidates with no endorsements yet
RMark Strauss0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DJerry Kerner0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
LAlden Patrick Johnson0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-10-22
Alden Patrick JohnsonOWN COMMITTEE
Receipts
$1.5K
Disburse
$910
Cash on hand
$391.45
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
AUTO AIR OF D'IBERVILLE$100

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$80.8K
D side
$42.0K · 52%
R side
$38.8K · 48%
Top spender
—
For / against split
Against Palazzo $42.0K
For Palazzo $38.8K

Editorial ratings · 5 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Safe R5
The Cook Political Report
Safe R
Jan 23
DDHQ
Safe R
Jul 19
538
Safe R
Jun 29
Inside Elections
Safe R
Mar 20
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Safe R
Jan 25

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 11, 2026Safe Rmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2022-10-22
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks