Races · house · 2022 · Mississippi
house · open seat
Shuwaski Young vs Michael Guest
Where this race stands
VerifiedLikely R · model 99% R
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+14) suggests Likely R.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+28.0 with an 80% CI ranging from R+40.0 (10th pctile) to R+16.0 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.
CITATIONS · likely-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +28.0
80% CI: R +40.0 → R +16.0 · win prob 1%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | passed |
| Actual result | R+41.4 |
| Residual σ | 6.00pt |
| Generated | 7/1/2026 |
Endorsements · 0 total
Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yetRMichael Guest0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DShuwaski Young0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-06-28Michael GuestH8MS03125 ↗
Receipts
$1.4M
Disburse
$1.6M
Cash on hand
$25.0K
Debts
$0
Top industries
Lawyers / law firms$9.7K
Lawyers / law firms · $9.7K
- Elliott Law Firm · $9.7K
Individuals $9.7K · PACs $0
Oil & gas$7.9K
Oil & gas · $7.9K
- Pruett Oil · $7.9K
Individuals $7.9K · PACs $0
Crop production$7.8K
Crop production · $7.8K
- Sanderson Farms · $7.8K
Individuals $7.8K · PACs $0
Top contributors
LANDMARK MANAGEMENT COMPANY$17.4K
ERGON$10.8K
ELLIOTT LAW FIRM$9.7K
BGR GROUP$8.8K
TOWER LOAN$8.7K
Shuwaski Young
Receipts
$77.4K
Disburse
$76.9K
Cash on hand
$469.86
Debts
$36.6K
Top industries
Lawyers / law firms$2.1K
Lawyers / law firms · $2.1K
- Shartsis Friese, LLP · $1.1K
- Van Pelt Yi & James LLP · $1.0K
Individuals $2.1K · PACs $0
Computers / electronics$2.0K
Computers / electronics · $2.0K
- Bar Association of San Francisco · $1.0K
- Intel Corporation · $1.0K
Individuals $2.0K · PACs $0
Top contributors
US DEPT OF HOMELAND SECURITY$1.5K
UC HASTINGS$1.4K
SHARTSIS FRIESE, LLP$1.1K
BAR ASSOCIATION OF SAN FRANCISCO$1.0K
WALKUP, MELODIA, KELLY & SCHOENBERGER$1.0K
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$23.1K
D side
$0 · 0%
R side
$23.1K · 100%
Top spender
NATIONAL ASSOCIATIO…
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE pac · boosts R
| R | $14.0K | 61% | for Michael Guest |
| MISSISSIPPI VICTORY FUND super pac · boosts R
| R | $6.0K | 26% | for Michael Guest |
| CONGRESSIONAL LEADERSHIP FUND super pac · boosts R
| R | $3.1K | 13% | for Michael Guest |
Editorial ratings · 5 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe R5
Safe R · 5 raters
- The Cook Political Report · Jan 23
- DDHQ · Jul 19
- 538 · Jun 29
- Inside Elections · Mar 20
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jan 25
The Cook Political Report
Safe RDDHQ
Safe R538
Safe RInside Elections
Safe RSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe RDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2022-06-28
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks