Races · house · 2022 · Mississippi

house · open seat

Dianne Black vs Trent Kelly

← Missouri house Mississippi house →

Safe RR +33.1 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets

Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
1% Black (D)
99% Kelly (R)
Win probability
Dianne Black1% (D)
Trent Kelly99% (R)
Modelpoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateR +33.1
80% CIR+45.1 → R+21.1
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Model's predicted final margin R +33.1 · 80% CI R+45.1 → R+21.1
Actual result R+46.0 · backtest (race already called)

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

0.0%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

—

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

—

no recent coverage

Where this race stands

Verified

Safe R · model 99% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+18) suggests Safe R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+33.1 with an 80% CI ranging from R+45.1 (10th pctile) to R+21.1 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · safe-r

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

R +33.1

80% CI: R +45.1 → R +21.1 · win prob 1%

R+60R+30TIEDD+30D+60

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	0
Days to election	passed
Actual result	R+46.0
Residual σ	6.00pt
Generated	7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet

RTrent Kelly0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

DDianne Black0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-11-21

Dianne BlackH2MS01148 ↗

Receipts

$34.3K

Disburse

$26.8K

Cash on hand

$-8,403.99

Debts

Top industries

No industry data.

Top contributors

NA$6.4K

OWNER - HAIR FASHIONS$2.1K

PRENTISS COUNTY EXECUTIVE COMM$300

Trent KellyH6MS01131 ↗

Receipts

$1.1M

Disburse

$1.0M

Cash on hand

$325.7K

Debts

Top industries

No industry data.

Top contributors

DUNLAP & KYLE$11.6K

USMI$11.6K

HANKINS$10.7K

PREWETT HOLDINGS, LLC$8.7K

SEEMANN COMPOSITES$7.0K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports

IE total

$3.0K

D side

$2.1K · 70%

R side

$902 · 30%

Top spender

INDIVISIBLE ACTION

For / against split

For Black $2.1K

For Kelly $902

Spender	Side	Amount	Share	Target
INDIVISIBLE ACTION	D	$2.1K	70%	for Dianne Black
THE GUARDIAN FUND	R	$902	30%	for Trent Kelly

Editorial ratings · 5 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Safe R5

The Cook Political Report

Safe R

Jan 23

DDHQ

Safe R

Jul 19

538

Safe R

Jun 29

Inside Elections

Safe R

Mar 20

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Safe R

Jan 25

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.

Rating timeline

May 11, 2026Safe Rmodel

Verification trail

Polls verified0 / 0deterministic

Polls flagged—none

Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed

FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2022-11-21

Endorsements—nothing to sync

News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News

Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks