Races · house · 2022 · Missouri

house · open seat

Henry Martin vs Sam Graves

← Missouri house Missouri house →

Safe RR +34.6 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets

Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
1% Martin (D)
99% Graves (R)
Win probability
Henry Martin1% (D)
Sam Graves99% (R)
Modelpoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateR +34.6
80% CIR+46.6 → R+22.6
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Model's predicted final margin R +34.6 · 80% CI R+46.6 → R+22.6
Actual result R+42.8 · backtest (race already called)

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

0.0%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

—

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

—

no recent coverage

Where this race stands

Verified

Safe R · model 99% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+19) suggests Safe R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+34.6 with an 80% CI ranging from R+46.6 (10th pctile) to R+22.6 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · safe-r

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

R +34.6

80% CI: R +46.6 → R +22.6 · win prob 1%

R+60R+30TIEDD+30D+60

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	0
Days to election	passed
Actual result	R+42.8
Residual σ	6.00pt
Generated	7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 3 candidates with no endorsements yet

RSam Graves0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

DHenry Martin0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

LEdward A (Andy) Maidment0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-10-17

Sam GravesH0MO06073 ↗

Receipts

$2.4M

Disburse

$1.9M

Cash on hand

$1.4M

Debts

$5.5K

Top industries

Air transport$23.4K

Real estate$7.8K

Top contributors

HERZOG LLC$23.2K

HERZOG$15.0K

BOEING$12.8K

THE BOEING COMPANY$10.6K

ALLEGIANT TRAVEL COMPANY$9.3K

Henry MartinOWN COMMITTEE

Receipts

$141.9K

Disburse

$136.0K

Cash on hand

Debts

Top industries

Internet$6.0K

Crop production$4.1K

Real estate$500

Top contributors

GOOGLE$6.0K

K ROWE INVESTMENTS, LLC$5.8K

OVERLOOK FARM$4.1K

MINACT INC.$3.1K

FEDEX$2.5K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports

IE total

$63.19

D side

$0 · 0%

R side

$63.19 · 100%

Top spender

MISSOURI RIGHT TO L…

For / against split

For Graves $63.19

Spender	Side	Amount	Share	Target
MISSOURI RIGHT TO LIFE FEDERAL POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	R	$63.19	100%	for Sam Graves

Editorial ratings · 6 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Safe R6

The Cook Political Report

Safe R

May 18

DDHQ

Safe R

Jul 19

The Economist

Safe R

Sep 27

538

Safe R

Jun 29

Inside Elections

Safe R

Jun 2

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Safe R

May 24

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.

Rating timeline

May 11, 2026Safe Rmodel

Verification trail

Polls verified0 / 0deterministic

Polls flagged—none

Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed

FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2022-10-17

Endorsements—nothing to sync

News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News

Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks