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Races · house · 2022 · Missouri
house · open seat

Emanuel Cleaver vs Jacob Turk

← Missouri houseMissouri house →
Safe DD +27.2 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
99% Cleaver (D)
1% Turk (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin D +27.2 · 80% CI D+15.2 → D+39.2
Actual result D+24.6 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Likely D · model 99% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+12) suggests Likely D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+27.2 with an 80% CI ranging from D+15.2 (10th pctile) to D+39.2 (90th pctile), giving D a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · likely-d
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +27.2
80% CI: D +15.2 → D +39.2 · win prob 99%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultD+24.6
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 3 candidates with no endorsements yet
DEmanuel Cleaver0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RJacob Turk0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
LRobin Dominick0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-10-28
Emanuel CleaverH4MO05234 ↗
Receipts
$1.2M
Disburse
$1.2M
Cash on hand
$961.1K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
ROCKET COMPANIES$13.0K
ROCKET MORTGAGE$9.8K
VETERANS UNITED$7.3K
RETIRED.$6.3K
EDP ENTERPRISES INC$5.8K
Jacob TurkH6MO05189 ↗
Receipts
$37.6K
Disburse
$36.8K
Cash on hand
$742.57
Debts
$0
Top industries
Electric utilities$500
Top contributors
ROCKHILL ORTHOPAEDICS$2.9K
ORTHODONTIST$1.0K
PRESIDENT$750
KORNIS ELECTRIC$500
MISSOURI$500

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$25.1K
D side
$25.0K · 100%
R side
$52.46 · 0%
Top spender
BLACK/BROWN PAC
For / against split
For Cleaver $25.0K
For Turk $52.46
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
BLACK/BROWN PACD$25.0K100%for Emanuel Cleaver
MISSOURI RIGHT TO LIFE FEDERAL POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEER$52.460%for Jacob Turk
SIERRA CLUB INDEPENDENT ACTIOND$100%for Emanuel Cleaver
PLANNED PARENTHOOD VOTESD$8.680%for Emanuel Cleaver

Editorial ratings · 6 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Safe D6
The Cook Political Report
Safe D
May 18
DDHQ
Safe D
Jul 19
The Economist
Safe D
Sep 27
538
Safe D
Jun 29
Inside Elections
Safe D
Jun 2
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Safe D
May 24

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 11, 2026Safe Dmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2022-10-28
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks