Races · house · 2022 · Minnesota
house · open seat
Jill Abahsain vs Michelle Fischbach
Where this race stands
VerifiedSafe R · model 99% R
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+18) suggests Safe R.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+33.2 with an 80% CI ranging from R+45.2 (10th pctile) to R+21.2 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.
CITATIONS · safe-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +33.2
80% CI: R +45.2 → R +21.2 · win prob 1%
R+60R+30TIEDD+30D+60
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | passed |
| Actual result | R+39.3 |
| Residual σ | 6.00pt |
| Generated | 7/1/2026 |
Endorsements · 0 total
Source · Wikipedia · 3 candidates with no endorsements yetRMichelle Fischbach0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DJill Abahsain0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
ITravis Johnson0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-10-17Michelle FischbachH0MN07091 ↗
Receipts
$1.7M
Disburse
$1.7M
Cash on hand
$11.0K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
DAVIS HOLDINGS$11.6K
WESTERN NATIONAL GROUP$11.6K
STARKEY HEARING TECHNOLOGIES$11.6K
HUBBARD BROADCASTING FOUNDATION$11.6K
COLD SPRING GRANITE$8.7K
Travis Johnson
Receipts
$40.8K
Disburse
$38.2K
Cash on hand
$665
Debts
$0
Top industries
Crop production$350
Crop production · $350
- Farmer · $350
Individuals $350 · PACs $0
Top contributors
SANITATION COMPANY$878
FARMER$350
KAHLER INDUSTRIES$325
EMS$112.5
CROOKSTON AMBULANCE$100
Jill Abahsain
Receipts
$33.6K
Disburse
$30.5K
Cash on hand
$3.1K
Debts
$5.7K
Top industries
Govt employees$250
Govt employees · $250
- Federal Government · $250
Individuals $250 · PACs $0
Top contributors
TWINEXPRESS$2.0K
0$250
PROFILE PLAN$250
FEDERAL GOVERNMENT$250
JMS&K$75
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$31.6K
D side
$3.8K · 12%
R side
$27.8K · 88%
Top spender
NATIONAL RIGHT TO L…
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NATIONAL RIGHT TO LIFE VICTORY FUND super pac · boosts R
| R | $26.3K | 83% | for Michelle Fischbach |
| INDIVISIBLE BEMIDJI pac · boosts D
| D | $3.8K | 12% | against Michelle Fischbach |
| MINNESOTA CITIZENS CONCERNED FOR LIFE, INC. FEDERAL PAC pac · boosts R
| R | $1.2K | 4% | for Michelle Fischbach |
| WOMEN SPEAK OUT PAC super pac · boosts R
| R | $302.48 | 1% | for Michelle Fischbach |
Editorial ratings · 6 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe R6
Safe R · 6 raters
- The Cook Political Report · Feb 9
- DDHQ · Jul 19
- The Economist · Sep 27
- 538 · Jun 29
- Inside Elections · Apr 6
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Feb 15
The Cook Political Report
Safe RDDHQ
Safe RThe Economist
Safe R538
Safe RInside Elections
Safe RSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe RDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2022-10-17
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks