Races · house · 2022 · Minnesota

house · open seat

Minnesota house

← Minnesota house Minnesota house →

Likely DD +9.1 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets

Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
94% (D)
6% Kistner (R)
Win probability
Democrat94% (D)
Tyler Kistner6% (R)
Modelpoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateD +9.1
80% CIR+2.9 → D+21.1
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Model's predicted final margin D +9.1 · 80% CI R+2.9 → D+21.1
Actual result Angie Craig +5.3 · backtest (race already called)

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

0.0%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

—

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

—

no recent coverage

Where this race stands

Verified

Tilt D · model 94% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+3) suggests Tilt D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+9.1 with an 80% CI ranging from R+2.9 (10th pctile) to D+21.1 (90th pctile), giving D a 94% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · tilt-d

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

D +9.1

80% CI: R +2.9 → D +21.1 · win prob 94%

R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	0
Days to election	passed
Actual result	Angie Craig +5.3
Residual σ	6.00pt
Generated	7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yet

RTyler Kistner0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-11-18

Tyler KistnerH0MN02134 ↗

Receipts

$3.4M

Disburse

$3.3M

Cash on hand

$104.9K

Debts

Top industries

No industry data.

Top contributors

No contributor data.

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports

IE total

$6.6M

D side

$6.3M · 95%

R side

$310.9K · 5%

Top spender

HOUSE MAJORITY PAC

For / against split

Against Kistner $6.3M

For Kistner $310.9K

Spender	Side	Amount	Share	Target
HOUSE MAJORITY PAC	D	$5.9M	89%	against Tyler Kistner
WOMEN VOTE!	D	$373.1K	6%	against Tyler Kistner
SPECIAL OPERATIONS FOR AMERICA	R	$100.0K	2%	for Tyler Kistner
CONGRESSIONAL LEADERSHIP FUND	R	$85.0K	1%	for Tyler Kistner
RIGHT NOW USA	R	$63.4K	1%	for Tyler Kistner

Editorial ratings · 6 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Likely D1

Lean D3

Tossup2

The Cook Political Report

Tossup

Feb 15

DDHQ

Lean D

Jul 19

The Economist

Lean D

Oct 31

538

Likely D

Nov 7

Inside Elections

Tossup

Aug 24

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Lean D

Nov 6

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.

Rating timeline

May 11, 2026Likely Dmodel

Verification trail

Polls verified0 / 0deterministic

Polls flagged—none

Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed

FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2022-11-18

Endorsements—nothing to sync

News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News

Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks