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Races · house · 2022 · Michigan
house · open seat

Dan Kildee vs Paul Junge

← Michigan houseMichigan house →
Likely DD +12.8 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
98% Kildee (D)
2% Junge (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin D +12.8 · 80% CI D+0.8 → D+24.8
Actual result D+10.3 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Tossup · model 98% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+1) suggests Tossup.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+12.8 with an 80% CI ranging from D+0.8 (10th pctile) to D+24.8 (90th pctile), giving D a 98% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · tossup
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +12.8
80% CI: D +0.8 → D +24.8 · win prob 98%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultD+10.3
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet
DDan Kildee0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RPaul Junge0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-12-19
Paul JungeH0MI08141 ↗
Receipts
$3.1M
Disburse
$3.0M
Cash on hand
$92.3K
Debts
$1.4M
Top industries
Oil & gas$8.7K
Top contributors
ALDEN TORCH FINANCIAL$25.0K
TAGLICH BROTHERS$11.6K
MAGNOLIA OIL AND GAS CORP.$8.7K
BLUFF POINT ASSOC.$5.8K
ULINE$5.8K
Dan KildeeH2MI05119 ↗
Receipts
$5.6M
Disburse
$6.4M
Cash on hand
$21.9K
Debts
$37.6K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$13.3M
D side
$10.0M · 75%
R side
$3.3M · 25%
Top spender
HOUSE MAJORITY PAC
For / against split
For Kildee $2.3M
Against Junge $7.7M
Against Kildee $3.1M
For Junge $162.9K
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
HOUSE MAJORITY PACD$4.4M33%against Paul Junge
NRCCR$3.1M23%against Dan Kildee
DCCCD$1.7M13%against Paul Junge
CENTER FORWARD COMMITTEED$1.1M8%against Paul Junge
CONGRESSIONAL BLACK CAUCUS PACD$713.6K5%for Dan Kildee
AMERICAN HOSPITAL ASSOCIATION PACD$614.1K5%for Dan Kildee
BLACKPACD$600.0K5%for Dan Kildee
CENTER FOR ESSENTIAL INFORMATIOND$457.9K3%against Paul Junge
CLIMATE POWER ACTIOND$108.9K1%for Dan Kildee
GOA VICTORY FUNDR$64.3K0%for Paul Junge

Editorial ratings · 6 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Likely D1
Lean D4
Tossup1
The Cook Political Report
Lean D
Oct 4
DDHQ
Tossup
Jul 19
The Economist
Lean D
Oct 3
538
Likely D
Jun 29
Inside Elections
Lean D
Oct 20
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Lean D
Nov 6

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Jul 1, 2026Likely Dmodel
Jun 22, 2026Lean Dmodel
May 15, 2026Tilt Dmodel
May 11, 2026Likely Dmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2022-12-19
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks