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Races · house · 2022 · Michigan
house · open seat

Elissa Slotkin vs Tom Barrett

← Michigan houseMichigan house →
Lean RR +2.5 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
34% Slotkin (D)
66% Barrett (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin R +2.5 · 80% CI R+14.5 → D+9.5
Actual result D+5.4 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Tossup · model 66% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+0) suggests Tossup.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+2.5 with an 80% CI ranging from R+14.5 (10th pctile) to D+9.5 (90th pctile), giving R a 66% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · tossup
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +2.5
80% CI: R +14.5 → D +9.5 · win prob 34%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultD+5.4
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet
DElissa Slotkin0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RTom Barrett0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-11-28
Tom BarrettH2MI07123 ↗
Receipts
$2.8M
Disburse
$2.8M
Cash on hand
$5.3K
Debts
$0
Top industries
Govt employees$11.9K
Oil & gas$6.4K
Top contributors
STATE OF MICHIGAN$11.9K
ALTICOR$11.6K
SELF EMPLOYED-SAME AS HOME$11.6K
CHI AVIATION$8.7K
SOLOMON PLUMBING$6.8K
Elissa SlotkinH8MI08102 ↗
Receipts
$10.0M
Disburse
$11.4M
Cash on hand
$128.9K
Debts
$0
Top industries
Education$123.3K
Securities & investment$27.1K
Internet$16.6K
Top contributors
MICHIGAN STATE UNIVERSITY$76.4K
UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN$35.3K
MSU$25.1K
GOOGLE$16.6K
BAIN CAPITAL$15.5K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$22.0M
D side
$13.0M · 59%
R side
$8.9M · 41%
Top spender
HOUSE MAJORITY PAC
For / against split
For Slotkin $281.8K
Against Barrett $12.8M
Against Slotkin $7.5M
For Barrett $1.4M
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
HOUSE MAJORITY PACD$12.6M57%against Tom Barrett
NRCCR$5.6M25%against Elissa Slotkin
CONGRESSIONAL LEADERSHIP FUNDR$1.1M5%against Elissa Slotkin
AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTIONR$909.7K4%for Tom Barrett
DEFEND US PACR$724.7K3%against Elissa Slotkin
MICHIGAN REPUBLICAN PARTYR$529.7K2%for Tom Barrett
SHIELD PACD$160.0K1%for Elissa Slotkin
AMERICAN FEDERATION OF STATE COUNTY & MUNICIPAL EMPLOYEES P E O P L ED$96.0K0%against Tom Barrett

Editorial ratings · 6 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Lean D2
Tilt D1
Tossup2
Lean R1
The Cook Political Report
Tossup
Jun 14
Decision Desk HQ
Tossup
Nov 3
The Economist
Lean D
Nov 7
538
Lean D
Oct 19
Inside Elections
Tilt D
Jun 14
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Lean R
Nov 6

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Jul 1, 2026Lean Rmodel
Jun 22, 2026Tilt Dmodel
May 15, 2026Lean Dmodel
May 11, 2026Tilt Rmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2022-11-28
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks