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Races · house · 2022 · Michigan
house · open seat

Bart Goldberg vs Tim Walberg

← Michigan houseMichigan house →
Likely RR +7.3 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
11% Goldberg (D)
89% Walberg (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin R +7.3 · 80% CI R+19.3 → D+4.7
Actual result R+27.4 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Likely R · model 89% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+13) suggests Likely R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+7.3 with an 80% CI ranging from R+19.3 (10th pctile) to D+4.7 (90th pctile), giving R a 89% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · likely-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +7.3
80% CI: R +19.3 → D +4.7 · win prob 11%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultR+27.4
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 4 candidates with no endorsements yet
RTim Walberg0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DBart Goldberg0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
LNorman Peterson0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
IEzra Scott0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-10-31
Bart GoldbergH2MI05176 ↗
Receipts
$164.5K
Disburse
$161.5K
Cash on hand
$3.1K
Debts
$50.0K
Top industries
Education$2.9K
Lawyers / law firms$1.6K
Top contributors
DELOITTE$6.3K
EAST WEST TRADING$5.8K
SALT CREEK SCHOOL DISTRICT 48$2.9K
.$2.0K
CHRIS MOORE LAW LLC$1.6K
Tim WalbergH4MI07103 ↗
Receipts
$1.5M
Disburse
$1.2M
Cash on hand
$1.1M
Debts
$0
Top industries
Education$6.9K
Insurance$5.8K
Top contributors
RDV CORPORATION$11.6K
LIBERTY TITLE$10.0K
PLASTIPAK PACKAGING$9.2K
THE KIRLIN COMPANY$8.7K
UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN$6.9K
Ezra ScottOWN COMMITTEE
Receipts
$12.9K
Disburse
$10.6K
Cash on hand
$2.3K
Debts
$4.1K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
BERKSHIRE REFRIGERATED WAREHOUSING LLC$250

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$4.9K
D side
$3.8K · 78%
R side
$1.1K · 22%
Top spender
SUPERMAJORITY PAC
For / against split
For Goldberg $3.8K
Against Walberg $8.68
For Walberg $1.1K
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
SUPERMAJORITY PACD$3.8K78%for Bart Goldberg
RIGHT TO LIFE OF MICHIGAN VICTORY FUNDR$1.1K22%for Tim Walberg
PLANNED PARENTHOOD VOTESD$8.680%against Tim Walberg
NATIONAL RIFLE ASSOCIATION OF AMERICA POLITICAL VICTORY FUNDR$0.060%for Tim Walberg

Editorial ratings · 6 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Safe R6
The Cook Political Report
Safe R
Dec 27
DDHQ
Safe R
Jul 19
The Economist
Safe R
Sep 27
538
Safe R
Jun 29
Inside Elections
Safe R
Jan 12
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Safe R
Jan 3

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 15, 2026Likely Rmodel
May 11, 2026Lean Rmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2022-10-31
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks