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Races · house · 2022 · Michigan
house · open seat

Joseph Alfonso vs Bill Huizenga

← Michigan houseMichigan house →
Likely RR +12.1 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
2% Alfonso (D)
98% Huizenga (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin R +12.1 · 80% CI R+24.1 → R+0.1
Actual result R+11.9 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Tilt R · model 98% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+3) suggests Tilt R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+12.1 with an 80% CI ranging from R+24.1 (10th pctile) to tied (90th pctile), giving R a 98% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · tilt-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +12.1
80% CI: R +24.1 → R +0.1 · win prob 2%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultR+11.9
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 4 candidates with no endorsements yet
RBill Huizenga0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DJoseph Alfonso0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
LLorence Wenke0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
ICurtis Michael Clark0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-11-04
Bill HuizengaH0MI02094 ↗
Receipts
$3.1M
Disburse
$3.4M
Cash on hand
$101.5K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
HAWORTH INCORPORATED$21.1K
AMWAY$11.6K
RAMI$11.6K
PIONEER CONSTRUCTION$11.6K
AMERIFIRST$11.6K
Joseph AlfonsoH2MI04260 ↗
Receipts
$37.3K
Disburse
$36.2K
Cash on hand
$1.1K
Debts
$0
Top industries
Computers / electronics$260
Pharma / health products$250
Education$250
Top contributors
REFRESCO$2.9K
ALLEGAN ASCENSION$500
MICROSOFT$260
KALAMAZOO COUNTY CONVENTION BR$250
PFIZER$250
Lorence WenkeH2MI04294 ↗
No FEC committee filing yet.
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$271.7K
D side
$10.3K · 4%
R side
$261.4K · 96%
Top spender
MICHIGAN CONSERVATI…
For / against split
For Alfonso $10.3K
Against Alfonso $88.0K
For Huizenga $173.4K
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
MICHIGAN CONSERVATIVE ACTIONR$221.2K81%for Bill Huizenga
NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEER$25.4K9%for Bill Huizenga
PATRIOTS FUNDR$17.5K6%for Bill Huizenga
SUPERMAJORITY PACD$10.3K4%for Joseph Alfonso
RIGHT TO LIFE OF MICHIGAN VICTORY FUNDR$1.2K0%for Bill Huizenga

Editorial ratings · 6 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Safe R6
The Cook Political Report
Safe R
Jun 14
DDHQ
Safe R
Jul 19
The Economist
Safe R
Sep 27
538
Safe R
Jun 29
Inside Elections
Safe R
Jun 14
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Safe R
Jun 14

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Jul 1, 2026Likely Rmodel
May 11, 2026Safe Rmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2022-11-04
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks