Races · house · 2022 · Michigan

house · open seat

Hillary Scholten vs John Gibbs

← Michigan house Michigan house →

Tilt RR +1.4 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets

Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
41% Scholten (D)
59% Gibbs (R)
Win probability
Hillary Scholten41% (D)
John Gibbs59% (R)
Modelpoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateR +1.4
80% CIR+13.4 → D+10.6
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Model's predicted final margin R +1.4 · 80% CI R+13.4 → D+10.6
Actual result D+12.9 · backtest (race already called)

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

0.0%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

—

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

—

no recent coverage

Where this race stands

Verified

Lean D · model 59% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+4) suggests Lean D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+1.4 with an 80% CI ranging from R+13.4 (10th pctile) to D+10.6 (90th pctile), giving R a 59% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · lean-d

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

R +1.4

80% CI: R +13.4 → D +10.6 · win prob 41%

R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	0
Days to election	passed
Actual result	D+12.9
Residual σ	6.00pt
Generated	7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet

RJohn Gibbs0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

DHillary Scholten0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-11-18

John GibbsH2MI03197 ↗

Receipts

$1.7M

Disburse

$1.7M

Cash on hand

$1.3K

Debts

$18.0K

Top industries

Health professionals$5.8K

Top contributors

EAGLE COMPANIES$11.6K

AMWAY$5.8K

RDV CORPORATION$5.8K

ISLAND DOCTORS$5.8K

RELIABLE PAVING$5.8K

Hillary ScholtenH0MI03316 ↗

Receipts

$3.8M

Disburse

$3.8M

Cash on hand

$10.3K

Debts

Top industries

Education$17.6K

Lawyers / law firms$9.4K

Pharma / health products$5.8K

Top contributors

MILLER JOHNSON$22.3K

SPECTRUM HEALTH$12.1K

CHARLES AND LYNN SCHUSTERMAN FAMILY PH$11.6K

GRAND VALLEY STATE UNIVERSITY$10.2K

VARNUM LLP$9.4K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports

IE total

$13.6M

D side

$7.5M · 55%

R side

$6.1M · 45%

Top spender

HOUSE MAJORITY PAC

For / against split

For Scholten $122.3K

Against Gibbs $7.3M

Against Scholten $3.6M

For Gibbs $2.5M

Spender	Side	Amount	Share	Target
HOUSE MAJORITY PAC	D	$4.2M	31%	against John Gibbs
CONGRESSIONAL LEADERSHIP FUND	R	$2.3M	17%	against Hillary Scholten
LCV VICTORY FUND	D	$1.8M	13%	against John Gibbs
MICHIGAN REPUBLICAN PARTY	R	$1.8M	13%	for John Gibbs
DCCC	D	$1.4M	10%	against John Gibbs
ESAFUND	R	$1.2M	9%	against Hillary Scholten
PROTECT FREEDOM POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	R	$375.8K	3%	for John Gibbs
DEFEND THE VOTE	D	$80.0K	1%	for Hillary Scholten
AMERICAN PRINCIPLES PROJECT PAC	R	$36.9K	0%	against Hillary Scholten
WORKING AMERICA	D	$26.0K	0%	for Hillary Scholten

Editorial ratings · 6 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Lean D4

Tossup2

The Cook Political Report

Lean D

Aug 4

DDHQ

Tossup

Oct 31

The Economist

Lean D

Sep 27

538

Tossup

Oct 19

Inside Elections

Lean D

Oct 20

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Lean D

Sep 6

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.

Rating timeline

Jul 1, 2026Tilt Rmodel

Jun 22, 2026Tilt Dmodel

May 15, 2026Lean Rmodel

May 11, 2026Tilt Rmodel

Verification trail

Polls verified0 / 0deterministic

Polls flagged—none

Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed

FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2022-11-18

Endorsements—nothing to sync

News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News

Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks