Races · house · 2022 · Michigan

house · open seat

Target Insyght vs John James

← Michigan house Michigan house →

Likely RR +10.9 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets

Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
4% Insyght (D)
96% James (R)
Win probability
Target Insyght4% (D)
John James96% (R)
Modelpoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateR +10.9
80% CIR+22.9 → D+1.1
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Model's predicted final margin R +10.9 · 80% CI R+22.9 → D+1.1
Actual result R+0.5 · backtest (race already called)

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

0.0%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

—

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

—

no recent coverage

Where this race stands

Verified

Tilt R · model 96% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+3) suggests Tilt R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+10.9 with an 80% CI ranging from R+22.9 (10th pctile) to D+1.1 (90th pctile), giving R a 96% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · tilt-r

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

R +10.9

80% CI: R +22.9 → D +1.1 · win prob 4%

R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	0
Days to election	passed
Actual result	R+0.5
Residual σ	6.00pt
Generated	7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet

DTarget Insyght0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

RJohn James0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-11-30

John JamesH2MI10150 ↗

Receipts

$7.0M

Disburse

$6.2M

Cash on hand

$795.5K

Debts

Top industries

Securities & investment$27.1K

Health professionals$11.6K

Top contributors

ENTREPRENEUR$58.6K

RDV CORPORATION$52.2K

BLACKSTONE$27.1K

PENSKE CORPORATION$14.8K

VOLUNTEER$12.0K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports

IE total

$2.9M

D side

$23.2K · 1%

R side

$2.9M · 99%

Top spender

AMERICANS FOR PROSP…

For / against split

For Marlinga $23.2K

Against Marlinga $525.5K

For James $2.3M

Spender	Side	Amount	Share	Target
AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	R	$1.1M	37%	for John James
OPPORTUNITY MATTERS FUND, INC.	R	$879.0K	30%	for John James
STRONG LEADERS FUND	R	$194.4K	7%	for John James
HUNTER ACTION FUND (HAF)	R	$87.3K	3%	for John James
SPECIAL OPERATIONS FOR AMERICA	R	$76.0K	3%	for John James

Editorial ratings · 6 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Lean R3

Likely R3

The Cook Political Report

Likely R

Aug 9

DDHQ

Likely R

Jul 19

The Economist

Lean R

Oct 31

538

Likely R

Oct 5

Inside Elections

Lean R

Aug 2

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Lean R

Jun 14

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.

Rating timeline

Jul 1, 2026Likely Rmodel

May 15, 2026Safe Rmodel

May 11, 2026Likely Rmodel

Verification trail

Polls verified0 / 0deterministic

Polls flagged—none

Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed

FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2022-11-30

Endorsements—nothing to sync

News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News

Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks