Races · house · 2022 · Michigan
house · open seat
Bob Lorinser vs Jack Bergman
Where this race stands
VerifiedLikely R · model 99% R
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+11) suggests Likely R.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+23.5 with an 80% CI ranging from R+35.5 (10th pctile) to R+11.5 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.
CITATIONS · likely-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +23.5
80% CI: R +35.5 → R +11.5 · win prob 1%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | passed |
| Actual result | R+22.6 |
| Residual σ | 6.00pt |
| Generated | 7/1/2026 |
Endorsements · 0 total
Source · Wikipedia · 4 candidates with no endorsements yetRJack Bergman0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DBob Lorinser0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
ILiz Hakola0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
LAndrew Gale0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-11-01Jack BergmanH6MI01226 ↗
Receipts
$1.8M
Disburse
$2.0M
Cash on hand
$10.1K
Debts
$42.7K
Top industries
Securities & investment$18.8K
Securities & investment · $18.8K
- Charles Schwab Corp · $18.8K
Individuals $18.8K · PACs $0
Top contributors
INFORMATION REQUESTED PER BEST EFFORTS$99.2K
ART MORAN BUICK GMC$28.4K
ZURICH$20.8K
CHARLES SCHWAB CORP$18.8K
KLS$13.6K
Bob LorinserH2MI01142 ↗
Receipts
$588.5K
Disburse
$578.3K
Cash on hand
$11.0K
Debts
$33.5K
Top industries
Health professionals$2.6K
Health professionals · $2.6K
- Sound Physicians · $1.4K
- Health Care Coordinates · $1.3K
Individuals $2.6K · PACs $0
Education$2.0K
Education · $2.0K
- University of Michigan · $2.0K
Individuals $2.0K · PACs $0
Securities & investment$1.4K
Securities & investment · $1.4K
- Vanguard Properties · $1.4K
Individuals $1.4K · PACs $0
Top contributors
INDIAN RIVER AREA LIBRARY$2.6K
UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN$2.0K
RIDHWAN FOUNDATION$2.0K
DYKEMA GOSSETT PLLC$2.0K
MEDITCH MURPHEY ARCHITECTS$2.0K
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$2.6K
D side
$10 · 0%
R side
$2.6K · 100%
Top spender
DISABLED VETERANS PAC
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DISABLED VETERANS PAC super pac · boosts R
| R | $1.4K | 52% | for Jack Bergman |
| RIGHT TO LIFE OF MICHIGAN VICTORY FUND super pac · boosts R
| R | $1.2K | 47% | for Jack Bergman |
| SIERRA CLUB INDEPENDENT ACTION super pac · boosts D
| D | $10 | 0% | for Bob Lorinser |
Editorial ratings · 6 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe R6
Safe R · 6 raters
- The Cook Political Report · Dec 27
- DDHQ · Jul 19
- The Economist · Sep 27
- 538 · Jun 29
- Inside Elections · Jan 12
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jan 3
The Cook Political Report
Safe RDDHQ
Safe RThe Economist
Safe R538
Safe RInside Elections
Safe RSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe RDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2022-11-01
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks