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Races · house · 2022 · Maine
PrimariesThis seat also has primary-season views:Democratic primary·Republican primary
house · open seat

Jared Golden vs Bruce Poliquin

← Maine houseMichigan house →
Tilt DD +0.9 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
56% Golden (D)
44% Poliquin (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin D +0.9 · 80% CI R+11.1 → D+12.9
Actual result D+4.7 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Lean R · model 56% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+4) suggests Lean R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+0.9 with an 80% CI ranging from R+11.1 (10th pctile) to D+12.9 (90th pctile), giving D a 56% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · lean-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +0.9
80% CI: R +11.1 → D +12.9 · win prob 56%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultD+4.7
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 3 candidates with no endorsements yet
DJared Golden0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RBruce Poliquin0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
ITiffany Bond0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-12-19
Bruce PoliquinH4ME02234 ↗
Receipts
$3.7M
Disburse
$3.6M
Cash on hand
$105.8K
Debts
$0
Top industries
Securities & investment$12.6K
Top contributors
BLACKSTONE$12.6K
EJ CARRIER$11.6K
NAUTIC PARTNERS LLC$11.6K
BLUFF POINT ASSOCIATES$11.6K
NAUTIC PARTNERS$10.8K
Jared GoldenH8ME02185 ↗
Receipts
$6.1M
Disburse
$6.2M
Cash on hand
$34.7K
Debts
$0
Top industries
Securities & investment$26.1K
Internet$11.9K
Top contributors
INSIGHT PARTNERS$14.5K
BLACKSTONE$14.5K
BERKSHIRE PARTNERS, LLC$12.6K
GOOGLE, LLC$11.9K
LINKEDIN$11.6K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$47.8M
D side
$34.0M · 71%
R side
$13.8M · 29%
Top spender
DCCC
For / against split
For Golden $9.3M
Against Poliquin $24.7M
Against Golden $13.2M
For Poliquin $583.4K
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
DCCCD$15.6M33%against Bruce Poliquin
HOUSE MAJORITY PACD$13.2M28%against Bruce Poliquin
NRCCR$10.8M23%against Jared Golden
CONGRESSIONAL LEADERSHIP FUNDR$2.9M6%against Jared Golden
THE MODERATE PAC, INC.D$2.3M5%for Jared Golden
CENTER FORWARD COMMITTEED$1.1M2%against Bruce Poliquin
WITH HONOR FUND, INC.D$818.3K2%for Jared Golden
CENTER FOR ESSENTIAL INFORMATIOND$459.5K1%against Bruce Poliquin

Editorial ratings · 6 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Lean D2
Tilt D1
Tossup2
Lean R1
The Cook Political Report
Tossup
Oct 4
DDHQ
Lean R
Nov 7
The Economist
Tossup
Oct 31
538
Lean D
Sep 3
Inside Elections
Tilt D
Oct 20
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Lean D
Nov 6

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Jun 22, 2026Tilt Dmodel
May 15, 2026Lean Dmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2022-12-19
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks