Races · house · 2022 · Maine

house · open seat

Chellie Pingree vs Ed Thelander

← Maryland house Maine house →

Safe DD +25.7 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets

Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
99% Pingree (D)
1% Thelander (R)
Win probability
Chellie Pingree99% (D)
Ed Thelander1% (R)
Modelpoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateD +25.7
80% CID+13.7 → D+37.7
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Model's predicted final margin D +25.7 · 80% CI D+13.7 → D+37.7
Actual result D+25.9 · backtest (race already called)

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

0.0%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

—

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

—

no recent coverage

Where this race stands

Verified

Likely D · model 99% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+11) suggests Likely D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+25.7 with an 80% CI ranging from D+13.7 (10th pctile) to D+37.7 (90th pctile), giving D a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · likely-d

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

D +25.7

80% CI: D +13.7 → D +37.7 · win prob 99%

R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	0
Days to election	passed
Actual result	D+25.9
Residual σ	6.00pt
Generated	7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet

DChellie Pingree0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

REd Thelander0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-11-28

Chellie PingreeH8ME01120 ↗

Receipts

$576.6K

Disburse

$619.0K

Cash on hand

$404.3K

Debts

$20.0K

Top industries

No industry data.

Top contributors

PALOMA PARTNERS ADVISORS LP$5.8K

MCARTHURGLEN GROUP$5.8K

TUSK HOLDINGS$5.8K

TAWANI ENTERPRISES INC.$4.0K

PASSAMAQUODDY TRIBE - INDIAN TOWNSHIP$2.9K

Ed ThelanderOWN COMMITTEE

Receipts

$454.1K

Disburse

$445.2K

Cash on hand

$8.8K

Debts

$10.0K

Top industries

No industry data.

Top contributors

DERMALOGIX PARTNERS, LLC$5.8K

CENTRAL MAINE MOTORS$5.0K

AQUABOGGAN$3.4K

AZCO$3.1K

WINDWARD STRATEGIES$2.9K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports

IE total

$83.6

D side

$83.6 · 100%

R side

$0 · 0%

Top spender

ENVIRONMENT AMERICA…

For / against split

For Pingree $83.6

Spender	Side	Amount	Share	Target
ENVIRONMENT AMERICA ACTION FUND	D	$55.92	67%	for Chellie Pingree
SIERRA CLUB INDEPENDENT ACTION	D	$10	12%	for Chellie Pingree
HUMAN RIGHTS CAMPAIGN EQUALITY VOTES	D	$9	11%	for Chellie Pingree
PLANNED PARENTHOOD VOTES	D	$8.68	10%	for Chellie Pingree

Editorial ratings · 6 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Safe D6

The Cook Political Report

Safe D

Oct 4

DDHQ

Safe D

Jul 19

The Economist

Safe D

Sep 27

538

Safe D

Jun 29

Inside Elections

Safe D

Oct 10

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Safe D

Oct 4

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.

Rating timeline

May 11, 2026Safe Dmodel

Verification trail

Polls verified0 / 0deterministic

Polls flagged—none

Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed

FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2022-11-28

Endorsements—nothing to sync

News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News

Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks