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Races · house · 2022 · Maryland
PrimariesThis seat also has primary-season views:Republican primary
house · open seat

David Trone vs Neil Parrott

← Maryland houseMaryland house →
Likely DD +10.1 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
95% Trone (D)
5% Parrott (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin D +10.1 · 80% CI R+1.9 → D+22.1
Actual result D+9.5 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Tilt D · model 95% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+3) suggests Tilt D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+10.1 with an 80% CI ranging from R+1.9 (10th pctile) to D+22.1 (90th pctile), giving D a 95% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · tilt-d
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +10.1
80% CI: R +1.9 → D +22.1 · win prob 95%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultD+9.5
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet
DDavid Trone0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RNeil Parrott0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-11-17
Neil ParrottH0MD06231 ↗
Receipts
$1.1M
Disburse
$1.2M
Cash on hand
$30.4K
Debts
$43.4K
Top industries
Education$8.1K
Govt employees$7.5K
Health professionals$5.8K
Top contributors
BRAGUNIER MASONRY$11.6K
DYNAMARK$8.7K
UNIVERSITY OF MARYLAND$8.1K
STATE OF MARYLAND$7.5K
NOBLIS$6.8K
David TroneH6MD08549 ↗
Receipts
$13.1M
Disburse
$13.0M
Cash on hand
$203.1K
Debts
$10.7M
Top industries
Health professionals$6.2K
TV / movies / music$5.8K
Top contributors
CAYMUS WINERIES$11.6K
SOUTHERN GLAZERS WINE & SPIRITS$11.6K
MENOCAL MEDICAL SERVICES$6.2K
JACKSON FAMILY WINES$5.8K
MATCHBOOK DISTILLING CO$5.8K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$32.4K
D side
$8.7K · 27%
R side
$23.7K · 73%
Top spender
CHESAPEAKE CLIMATE …
For / against split
For Trone $8.7K
For Parrott $23.7K
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
CHESAPEAKE CLIMATE ACTION NETWORK ACTION FUNDD$7.9K24%for David Trone
HOUSE FREEDOM FUNDR$6.6K20%for Neil Parrott
HOUSE FREEDOM ACTIONR$6.6K20%for Neil Parrott
NATIONAL RIGHT TO LIFE VICTORY FUNDR$6.5K20%for Neil Parrott
CLUB FOR GROWTH PACR$4.0K12%for Neil Parrott
NEA ADVOCACY FUNDD$866.163%for David Trone
SIERRA CLUB INDEPENDENT ACTIOND$100%for David Trone

Editorial ratings · 5 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Likely D3
Lean D2
The Cook Political Report
Likely D
Aug 31
DDHQ
Likely D
Aug 30
538
Lean D
Oct 21
Inside Elections
Likely D
Jun 14
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Lean D
Jun 28

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Jul 1, 2026Likely Dmodel
May 15, 2026Safe Dmodel
May 11, 2026Likely Dmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2022-11-17
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks