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Races · house · 2022 · Maryland
house · open seat

John Sarbanes vs Yuripzy Morgan

← Maryland houseMaryland house →
Safe DD +27.1 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
99% Sarbanes (D)
1% Morgan (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin D +27.1 · 80% CI D+15.1 → D+39.1
Actual result D+20.5 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Likely D · model 99% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+12) suggests Likely D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+27.1 with an 80% CI ranging from D+15.1 (10th pctile) to D+39.1 (90th pctile), giving D a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · likely-d
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +27.1
80% CI: D +15.1 → D +39.1 · win prob 99%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultD+20.5
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet
DJohn Sarbanes0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RYuripzy Morgan0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-09-27
John SarbanesH6MD03292 ↗
Receipts
$186.7K
Disburse
$740.3K
Cash on hand
$483.1K
Debts
$0
Top industries
Education$11.6K
Lawyers / law firms$5.8K
Top contributors
BARNARD COLLEGE$5.8K
HACKERMAN HOLDINGS,LLC$5.8K
AKIN GUMP STRAUSS HAUER & FELD LLP$5.8K
PROMENTORY FINANCIAL GROUP$5.8K
HENDERSEN-WEBB$5.8K
Yuripzy MorganOWN COMMITTEE
Receipts
$503.1K
Disburse
$500.3K
Cash on hand
$2.8K
Debts
$2.3K
Top industries
Real estate$11.6K
Govt employees$6.5K
Computers / electronics$5.8K
Lawyers / law firms$5.8K
Top contributors
BUCH CONSTRUCTION$10.0K
STATE OF MARYLAND$6.5K
TRUSTED SYSTEMS$5.8K
ASHLEY CAPITAL$5.8K
AVENA CONTACTING, LLC$5.8K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$159.83
D side
$159.83 · 100%
R side
$0 · 0%
Top spender
NEA ADVOCACY FUND
For / against split
For Sarbanes $159.83
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
NEA ADVOCACY FUNDD$141.1588%for John Sarbanes
SIERRA CLUB INDEPENDENT ACTIOND$106%for John Sarbanes
PLANNED PARENTHOOD VOTESD$8.685%for John Sarbanes

Editorial ratings · 5 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Safe D5
The Cook Political Report
Safe D
Jun 28
DDHQ
Safe D
Jul 19
538
Safe D
Jun 29
Inside Elections
Safe D
Jun 14
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Safe D
Jun 28

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 11, 2026Safe Dmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2022-09-27
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks