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Races · house · 2022 · Massachusetts
house · open seat

Seth Moulton vs Robert May

← Massachusetts houseMassachusetts house →
Safe DD +25.8 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
99% Moulton (D)
1% May (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin D +25.8 · 80% CI D+13.8 → D+37.8
Actual result D+27.8 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Likely D · model 99% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+11) suggests Likely D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+25.8 with an 80% CI ranging from D+13.8 (10th pctile) to D+37.8 (90th pctile), giving D a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · likely-d
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +25.8
80% CI: D +13.8 → D +37.8 · win prob 99%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultD+27.8
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 3 candidates with no endorsements yet
DSeth Moulton0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RRobert May0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
LMark Tashjian0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2021-06-11
Seth MoultonH4MA06090 ↗
Receipts
$2.1M
Disburse
$1.6M
Cash on hand
$769.3K
Debts
$0
Top industries
Securities & investment$11.6K
Lawyers / law firms$8.3K
Real estate$7.8K
Education$7.3K
Health professionals$6.2K
Top contributors
CHARLESBANK CAPITAL PARTNERS$11.6K
BAIN CAPITAL$11.6K
BERKSHIRE PARTNERS$11.2K
COOLEY LLP$8.3K
LEGGAT MCCALL PROPERTIES$7.8K
Mark TashjianOWN COMMITTEE
Receipts
$68.0K
Disburse
$67.5K
Cash on hand
$467.13
Debts
$0
Top industries
Lawyers / law firms$1.0K
Crop production$250
Top contributors
EXIDA$2.9K
KUHN & KUHN LAW FIRM$1.0K
ORMAT TECHNOLOGIES$1.0K
BLOCK, INC.$500
STEWART'S SHOPS CORP.$500
Robert MayOWN COMMITTEE
Receipts
$53.4K
Disburse
$40.2K
Cash on hand
$13.2K
Debts
$20.0K
Top industries
Lawyers / law firms$500
Air transport$500
Top contributors
WAYNE ALARM SYSTEMS INC$1.5K
STAR$1.0K
1A AUTO INC$1.0K
STATE ATTORNEY MIAMI$500
NORTHROP GRUMMAN$500

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$8.68
D side
$8.68 · 100%
R side
$0 · 0%
Top spender
PLANNED PARENTHOOD …
For / against split
For Moulton $8.68
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
PLANNED PARENTHOOD VOTESD$8.68100%for Seth Moulton

Editorial ratings · 6 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Safe D6
The Cook Political Report
Safe D
Nov 22
DDHQ
Safe D
Jul 19
The Economist
Safe D
Sep 27
538
Safe D
Jun 29
Inside Elections
Safe D
Apr 13
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Safe D
Dec 1

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 11, 2026Safe Dmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2021-06-11
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks