NonpartisanIndependent, data-first coverage of US elections — polls, forecasts, and prediction markets, refreshed daily.Updated daily.What's new ↗·Methodology·Send feedback
Races · house · 2022 · Louisiana
PrimariesThis seat also has primary-season views:Democratic primary·Republican primary
house · open seat

Oscar "Omar" Dantzler vs Julia Letlow

← Louisiana houseLouisiana house →
Safe RR +33.3 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
1% Dantzler (D)
99% Letlow (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin R +33.3 · 80% CI R+45.3 → R+21.3
Actual result R+51.9 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Safe R · model 99% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+18) suggests Safe R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+33.3 with an 80% CI ranging from R+45.3 (10th pctile) to R+21.3 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · safe-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +33.3
80% CI: R +45.3 → R +21.3 · win prob 1%
R+60R+30TIEDD+30D+60
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultR+51.9
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet
RJulia Letlow0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DOscar "Omar" Dantzler0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-10-17
Julia LetlowH2LA05126 ↗
Receipts
$2.8M
Disburse
$2.1M
Cash on hand
$786.7K
Debts
$0
Top industries
Health professionals$12.3K
Crop production$8.7K
Top contributors
RDV CORPORATION$17.4K
STANDARD ENTERPRISES, INC.$17.2K
PAFFORD MEDICAL SERVICES$12.3K
RIVER BIRCH, INC.$11.6K
RF DEVELOPMENT$8.7K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$67.0K
D side
$0 · 0%
R side
$67.0K · 100%
Top spender
DEFEND OUR VALUES P…
For / against split
For Letlow $67.0K
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
DEFEND OUR VALUES PAC (DOV PAC)R$40.1K60%for Julia Letlow
ELBERT GUILLORY'S AMERICAR$25.0K37%for Julia Letlow
CITIZENS FOR LAW ENFORCEMENTR$1.7K3%for Julia Letlow
WFW ACTION FUND, INC.R$149.690%for Julia Letlow
KOCH INDUSTRIES, INC. POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE (KOCHPAC)R$19.680%for Julia Letlow

Editorial ratings · 5 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Safe R5
The Cook Political Report
Safe R
Mar 30
DDHQ
Safe R
Jul 19
538
Safe R
Jun 29
Inside Elections
Safe R
May 23
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Safe R
Apr 5

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 11, 2026Safe Rmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2022-10-17
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks