Races · house · 2022 · Louisiana

house · open seat

Troy Carter vs Dan Lux

← Louisiana house Louisiana house →

Safe DD +32.9 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets

Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
99% Carter (D)
1% Lux (R)
Win probability
Troy Carter99% (D)
Dan Lux1% (R)
Modelpoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateD +32.9
80% CID+20.9 → D+44.9
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Model's predicted final margin D +32.9 · 80% CI D+20.9 → D+44.9
Actual result D+54.2 · backtest (race already called)

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

0.0%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

—

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

—

no recent coverage

Where this race stands

Verified

Safe D · model 99% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+17) suggests Safe D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+32.9 with an 80% CI ranging from D+20.9 (10th pctile) to D+44.9 (90th pctile), giving D a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · safe-d

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

D +32.9

80% CI: D +20.9 → D +44.9 · win prob 99%

R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	0
Days to election	passed
Actual result	D+54.2
Residual σ	6.00pt
Generated	7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet

DTroy Carter0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

RDan Lux0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2021-05-20

Troy CarterH2LA02149 ↗

Receipts

$3.1M

Disburse

$3.1M

Cash on hand

$366.2K

Debts

$86.2K

Top industries

Education$12.6K

Health professionals$9.9K

Top contributors

RIVER BIRCH, LLC$22.8K

COASTAL DESIGN AND INFRASTRUCTURE$17.0K

DIESEL DRIVING ACADEMY$12.6K

DANGLE AND ASSOCIATES$11.4K

PRIORITY MANAGEMENT$10.7K

Dan LuxOWN COMMITTEE

Receipts

$32.4K

Disburse

$36.1K

Cash on hand

$-3,581.27

Debts

$14.7K

Top industries

Health professionals$250

Electric utilities$250

Top contributors

DIBONA REVOCABLE TRUST$2.9K

VIN DI BONA PRODUCTIONS$2.9K

SALARY.COM$1.0K

VP PAINTING COMPANY, LLC$1.0K

CRANSTON FIRE DEPT$300

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports

IE total

$2.1M

D side

$36.2K · 2%

R side

$2.1M · 98%

Top spender

WOMEN VOTE!

For / against split

For Carter $36.2K

Against Carter $2.1M

Spender	Side	Amount	Share	Target
WOMEN VOTE!	R	$1.9M	90%	against Troy Carter
TRUST THE PEOPLE	R	$175.9K	8%	against Troy Carter
PROGRESS FOR THE PEOPLE	D	$21.7K	1%	for Troy Carter
PROTECTING OUR VOTE PAC	D	$14.5K	1%	for Troy Carter

Editorial ratings · 5 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Safe D5

The Cook Political Report

Safe D

Mar 30

DDHQ

Safe D

Jul 19

538

Safe D

Jun 29

Inside Elections

Safe D

May 23

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Safe D

Apr 5

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.

Rating timeline

May 11, 2026Safe Dmodel

Verification trail

Polls verified0 / 0deterministic

Polls flagged—none

Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed

FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2021-05-20

Endorsements—nothing to sync

News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News

Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks