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Races · house · 2022 · Louisiana
house · open seat

Katie Darling vs Steve Scalise

← Kentucky houseLouisiana house →
Safe RR +36.0 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
1% Darling (D)
99% Scalise (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin R +36.0 · 80% CI R+48.0 → R+24.0
Actual result R+47.6 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Safe R · model 99% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+19) suggests Safe R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+36.0 with an 80% CI ranging from R+48.0 (10th pctile) to R+24.0 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · safe-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +36.0
80% CI: R +48.0 → R +24.0 · win prob 1%
R+60R+30TIEDD+30D+60
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultR+47.6
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 3 candidates with no endorsements yet
RSteve Scalise0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DKatie Darling0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
LHoward Kearney0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-10-17
Steve ScaliseH0LA01087 ↗
Receipts
$18.6M
Disburse
$20.1M
Cash on hand
$4.7M
Debts
$0
Top industries
Govt employees$12.1K
Casinos / gambling$11.6K
Top contributors
YATES LEGACY LLC$17.1K
WALMART$13.3K
USPS$12.1K
S-3 GROUP$12.0K
FIERCE GOVERNMENT RELATIONS$11.8K
Katie DarlingOWN COMMITTEE
Receipts
$152.5K
Disburse
$148.2K
Cash on hand
$4.3K
Debts
$1.9K
Top industries
Publishing / news$2.9K
Real estate$1.0K
Top contributors
THE BAUPOST GROUP$2.9K
PETROTECHNOLOGIES INC$2.0K
FLY BY KNIGHT$2.0K
ADVENTURE PLAYGROUND SYSTEMS$1.5K
AVATURE$1.0K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$104.0K
D side
$99.7K · 96%
R side
$4.4K · 4%
Top spender
THE LINCOLN PROJECT
For / against split
Against Scalise $99.7K
For Scalise $4.4K
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
THE LINCOLN PROJECTD$99.7K96%against Steve Scalise
NATIONAL RIFLE ASSOCIATION OF AMERICA POLITICAL VICTORY FUNDR$4.3K4%for Steve Scalise
KOCH INDUSTRIES, INC. POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE (KOCHPAC)R$19.680%for Steve Scalise

Editorial ratings · 5 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Safe R5
The Cook Political Report
Safe R
Mar 30
DDHQ
Safe R
Jul 19
538
Safe R
Jun 29
Inside Elections
Safe R
May 23
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Safe R
Apr 5

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 11, 2026Safe Rmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2022-10-17
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks