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Races · house · 2022 · Kansas
house · open seat

Sharice Davids vs Amanda Adkins

← Kansas houseKansas house →
Likely DD +10.6 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
96% Davids (D)
4% Adkins (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin D +10.6 · 80% CI R+1.4 → D+22.6
Actual result D+12.1 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Tilt D · model 96% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+2) suggests Tilt D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+10.6 with an 80% CI ranging from R+1.4 (10th pctile) to D+22.6 (90th pctile), giving D a 96% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · tilt-d
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +10.6
80% CI: R +1.4 → D +22.6 · win prob 96%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultD+12.1
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet
DSharice Davids0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RAmanda Adkins0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-12-19
Amanda AdkinsH0KS03236 ↗
Receipts
$3.9M
Disburse
$3.9M
Cash on hand
$32.0K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
COMMUNITY VOLUNTEER$51.1K
VALUE HEALTH$28.2K
NUETERRA CAPITAL$25.0K
HERZOG COMPANIES$23.2K
KIEWIT$22.9K
Sharice DavidsH8KS03155 ↗
Receipts
$7.9M
Disburse
$8.3M
Cash on hand
$63.6K
Debts
$0
Top industries
Education$23.8K
Computers / electronics$17.9K
Internet$11.0K
Top contributors
UNIVERSITY OF KANSAS$16.1K
SOTHEBYS$11.6K
GOOGLE$11.0K
MICROSOFT$10.0K
HALLMARK CARDS$9.0K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$26.7M
D side
$22.9M · 86%
R side
$3.8M · 14%
Top spender
HOUSE MAJORITY PAC
For / against split
For Davids $6.4M
Against Adkins $16.5M
Against Davids $3.0M
For Adkins $768.1K
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
HOUSE MAJORITY PACD$8.4M32%against Amanda Adkins
DCCCD$4.7M18%against Amanda Adkins
SHIELD PACD$3.1M12%for Sharice Davids
CONGRESSIONAL LEADERSHIP FUNDR$2.7M10%against Sharice Davids
NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS CONGRESSIONAL FUNDD$2.5M9%for Sharice Davids
CENTER FORWARD COMMITTEED$1.2M4%against Amanda Adkins
WOMEN VOTE!D$1.1M4%against Amanda Adkins
LCV VICTORY FUNDD$664.4K2%against Amanda Adkins
HEARTLAND USA PACR$310.3K1%against Sharice Davids
NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEED$281.2K1%for Sharice Davids

Editorial ratings · 6 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Likely D3
Lean D2
Tilt D1
The Cook Political Report
Lean D
Oct 24
DDHQ
Likely D
Oct 27
The Economist
Likely D
Oct 31
538
Likely D
Oct 26
Inside Elections
Tilt D
Sep 22
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Lean D
Nov 1

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 15, 2026Likely Dmodel
May 11, 2026Safe Dmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2022-12-19
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks