NonpartisanIndependent, data-first coverage of US elections — polls, forecasts, and prediction markets, refreshed daily.Updated daily.What's new ↗·Methodology·Send feedback
Races · house · 2022 · Indiana
house · open seat

André Carson vs Angela Grabovsky

← Indiana houseIndiana house →
Safe DD +35.4 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
99% Carson (D)
1% Grabovsky (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin D +35.4 · 80% CI D+23.4 → D+47.4
Actual result D+36.4 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Safe D · model 99% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+21) suggests Safe D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+35.4 with an 80% CI ranging from D+23.4 (10th pctile) to D+47.4 (90th pctile), giving D a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · safe-d
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +35.4
80% CI: D +23.4 → D +47.4 · win prob 99%
R+60R+30TIEDD+30D+60
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultD+36.4
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 3 candidates with no endorsements yet
DAndré Carson0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RAngela Grabovsky0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
LGavin Maple0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-11-05
André CarsonH8IN07184 ↗
Receipts
$857.3K
Disburse
$1.1M
Cash on hand
$711.1K
Debts
$0
Top industries
Lawyers / law firms$5.9K
Education$3.2K
Top contributors
BOSE MCKINNEY & EVANS, LLP$5.9K
THE HOGAN GROUP, INC.$5.8K
AXIA URBAN$5.8K
FRC$5.5K
INFRASTRUCTURE ENGINEERING INC.$4.3K
Angela GrabovskyOWN COMMITTEE
Receipts
$498.4K
Disburse
$498.3K
Cash on hand
$127.7
Debts
$0
Top industries
Electric utilities$2.9K
Top contributors
ABILITY HOME HEALTH, LLC$5.8K
BOWEN ENGINEERING CORPORATION$5.1K
HANNING AND BEAN ENTERPRISES$5.0K
IRWIN R ROSE CO LLC$4.4K
PETES SERVICE$3.5K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$35.8K
D side
$1.9K · 5%
R side
$33.9K · 95%
Top spender
LEADERSHIP FOR INDI…
For / against split
For Carson $1.9K
Against Carson $33.9K
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
LEADERSHIP FOR INDIANA PACR$33.9K95%against André Carson
PLANNED PARENTHOOD ALLIANCE PAC , SERVING WA, AK, ID, HI, IN, KYD$1.9K5%for André Carson
SIERRA CLUB INDEPENDENT ACTIOND$100%for André Carson

Editorial ratings · 6 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Safe D6
The Cook Political Report
Safe D
Oct 4
DDHQ
Safe D
Jul 19
The Economist
Safe D
Sep 27
FiveThirtyEight
Safe D
Jul 5
Inside Elections
Safe D
Oct 12
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Safe D
Oct 4

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 11, 2026Safe Dmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2022-11-05
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks