Races · house · 2022 · Indiana
house · open seat
Paul Steury vs Rudy Yakym
Where this race stands
VerifiedLikely R · model 99% R
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+13) suggests Likely R.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+27.4 with an 80% CI ranging from R+39.4 (10th pctile) to R+15.4 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.
CITATIONS · likely-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +27.4
80% CI: R +39.4 → R +15.4 · win prob 1%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | passed |
| Actual result | R+32.2 |
| Residual σ | 6.00pt |
| Generated | 7/1/2026 |
Endorsements · 0 total
Source · Wikipedia · 3 candidates with no endorsements yetRRudy Yakym0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DPaul Steury0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
LWilliam Henry0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-10-19Rudy YakymH2IN02295 ↗
Receipts
$1.2M
Disburse
$1.0M
Cash on hand
$148.1K
Debts
$0
Top industries
Lawyers / law firms$12.0K
Lawyers / law firms · $12.0K
- Barnes & Thornburg LLP · $12.0K
Individuals $12.0K · PACs $0
Crop production$11.6K
Crop production · $11.6K
- Maple Leaf Farms · $11.6K
Individuals $11.6K · PACs $0
Top contributors
JAYCO$40.6K
ROLLIE WILLIAMS$29.0K
INFORMATION REQUESTED PER BEST EFFORTS$19.6K
THOR INDUSTRIES$17.4K
SSM HEALTH$17.4K
Paul SteuryH2IN02279 ↗
Receipts
$103.7K
Disburse
$102.3K
Cash on hand
$1.6K
Debts
$0
Top industries
Lawyers / law firms$2.5K
Lawyers / law firms · $2.5K
- Latham & Watkins LLP · $2.5K
Individuals $2.5K · PACs $0
Education$2.1K
Education · $2.1K
- University of Notre Dame · $2.1K
Individuals $2.1K · PACs $0
Health professionals$1.0K
Health professionals · $1.0K
- Beacon Medical Group · $1.0K
Individuals $1.0K · PACs $0
Top contributors
LATHAM & WATKINS LLP$2.5K
UNIVERSITY OF NOTRE DAME$2.1K
INOVATEUS SOLAR$2.0K
GTA CONTAINERS, INC$2.0K
FOREM$1.3K
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$150.5K
D side
$10 · 0%
R side
$150.5K · 100%
Top spender
AMERICAN LEADERSHIP…
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMERICAN LEADERSHIP PAC super pac · boosts R
| R | $150.5K | 100% | for Rudy Yakym |
| SIERRA CLUB INDEPENDENT ACTION super pac · boosts D
| D | $10 | 0% | for Paul Steury |
Editorial ratings · 6 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe R6
Safe R · 6 raters
- The Cook Political Report · Oct 4
- DDHQ · Jul 19
- The Economist · Sep 27
- FiveThirtyEight · Jul 5
- Inside Elections · Oct 12
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Oct 4
The Cook Political Report
Safe RDDHQ
Safe RThe Economist
Safe RFiveThirtyEight
Safe RInside Elections
Safe RSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe RDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2022-10-19
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks