Races · house · 2022 · Indiana

house · open seat

Frank Mrvan vs Jennifer-Ruth Green

← Illinois house Indiana house →

Likely DD +5.2 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets

Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
81% Mrvan (D)
19% Green (R)
Win probability
Frank Mrvan81% (D)
Jennifer-Ruth Green19% (R)
Modelpoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateD +5.2
80% CIR+6.8 → D+17.2
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Model's predicted final margin D +5.2 · 80% CI R+6.8 → D+17.2
Actual result Frank J. Mrvan +5.6 · backtest (race already called)

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

0.0%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

—

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

—

no recent coverage

Where this race stands

Verified

Tossup · model 81% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+1) suggests Tossup.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+5.2 with an 80% CI ranging from R+6.8 (10th pctile) to D+17.2 (90th pctile), giving D a 81% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · tossup

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

D +5.2

80% CI: R +6.8 → D +17.2 · win prob 81%

R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	0
Days to election	passed
Actual result	Frank J. Mrvan +5.6
Residual σ	6.00pt
Generated	7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet

DFrank Mrvan0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

RJennifer-Ruth Green0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-11-22

Frank MrvanH0IN01150 ↗

Receipts

$2.5M

Disburse

$2.5M

Cash on hand

$54.3K

Debts

Top industries

Health professionals$12.6K

Internet$7.4K

Securities & investment$5.8K

Top contributors

IBEKIE FOUNDATION INC$8.3K

GOOGLE$7.4K

NRI CLINIC FOR COMPLEMENTARY MEDICINE$6.8K

PEOPLES BANK$6.0K

MASS GENERAL HOSPITAL$5.8K

Jennifer-Ruth GreenH2IN01172 ↗

Receipts

$3.5M

Disburse

$3.5M

Cash on hand

$24.2K

Debts

$7.0K

Top industries

Securities & investment$15.5K

Top contributors

BLACKSTONE$15.5K

HANNING & BEAN ENERPRISES$11.6K

EA COMPANIES$10.7K

FAMILY EXPRESS CORPORATION$8.6K

FIRST BAPTIST CHURCH$8.1K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports

IE total

$28.4M

D side

$11.5M · 40%

R side

$16.9M · 60%

Top spender

CONGRESSIONAL LEADE…

For / against split

For Mrvan $617.7K

Against Green $10.9M

Against Mrvan $14.9M

For Green $2.1M

Spender	Side	Amount	Share	Target
CONGRESSIONAL LEADERSHIP FUND	R	$11.9M	42%	against Frank Mrvan
HOUSE MAJORITY PAC	D	$11.2M	39%	against Jennifer-Ruth Green
WFW ACTION FUND, INC.	R	$2.4M	9%	against Frank Mrvan
AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	R	$949.2K	3%	for Jennifer-Ruth Green
AMERICAN LEADERSHIP PAC	R	$610.0K	2%	against Frank Mrvan
WOMEN SPEAK OUT PAC	R	$321.0K	1%	against Frank Mrvan
DCCC	D	$300.0K	1%	against Jennifer-Ruth Green

Editorial ratings · 6 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Likely D2

Lean D3

Tossup1

The Cook Political Report

Tossup

Jul 18

DDHQ

Likely D

Jul 19

The Economist

Lean D

Sep 27

FiveThirtyEight

Likely D

Sep 28

Inside Elections

Lean D

Aug 24

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Lean D

Nov 6

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.

Rating timeline

May 11, 2026Likely Dmodel

Verification trail

Polls verified0 / 0deterministic

Polls flagged—none

Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed

FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2022-11-22

Endorsements—nothing to sync

News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News

Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks