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Races · house · 2022 · Illinois
house · open seat

Raja Krishnamoorthi vs Chris Dargis

← Illinois houseIllinois house →
Likely DD +13.7 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
99% Krishnamoorthi (D)
1% Dargis (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin D +13.7 · 80% CI D+1.7 → D+25.7
Actual result D+13.8 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Lean D · model 99% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+5) suggests Lean D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+13.7 with an 80% CI ranging from D+1.7 (10th pctile) to D+25.7 (90th pctile), giving D a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · lean-d
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +13.7
80% CI: D +1.7 → D +25.7 · win prob 99%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultD+13.8
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet
DRaja Krishnamoorthi0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RChris Dargis0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-06-14
Raja KrishnamoorthiH6IL08147 ↗
Receipts
$8.5M
Disburse
$5.7M
Cash on hand
$11.2M
Debts
$0
Top industries
Lawyers / law firms$237.6K
Education$50.4K
Top contributors
KIRKLAND & ELLIS LLP$199.9K
KIRKLAND & ELLIS$37.7K
NORTHWESTERN UNIVERSITY$36.8K
UNIVERSITY OF CHICAGO$13.6K
ACCENTURE$12.6K
Chris DargisOWN COMMITTEE
Receipts
$545.8K
Disburse
$543.0K
Cash on hand
$2.9K
Debts
$10.7K
Top industries
Lawyers / law firms$5.8K
Insurance$2.9K
Top contributors
JUMP TRADING$5.8K
NEWKO PROTOTYPE INC$5.8K
CARDINAL HEALTH$3.0K
WESTERN NATIONAL PROPERTY$2.9K
RESIDCO$2.9K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$6.2K
D side
$18.68 · 0%
R side
$6.2K · 100%
Top spender
VICTORY FOR SCHAUMBURG
For / against split
For Krishnamoorthi $18.68
Against Krishnamoorthi $6.2K
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
VICTORY FOR SCHAUMBURGR$6.2K100%against Raja Krishnamoorthi
SIERRA CLUB INDEPENDENT ACTIOND$100%for Raja Krishnamoorthi
PLANNED PARENTHOOD VOTESD$8.680%for Raja Krishnamoorthi

Editorial ratings · 6 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Safe D6
The Cook Political Report
Safe D
Nov 29
DDHQ
Safe D
Jul 19
The Economist
Safe D
Sep 27
538
Safe D
Jun 29
Inside Elections
Safe D
Jan 27
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Safe D
Dec 1

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Jul 1, 2026Likely Dmodel
May 11, 2026Safe Dmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2022-06-14
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks