Races · house · 2022 · Illinois

house · open seat

Robin Kelly vs Thomas Lynch

← Illinois house Illinois house →

Safe DD +32.9 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets

Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
99% Kelly (D)
1% Lynch (R)
Win probability
Robin Kelly99% (D)
Thomas Lynch1% (R)
Modelpoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateD +32.9
80% CID+20.9 → D+44.9
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Model's predicted final margin D +32.9 · 80% CI D+20.9 → D+44.9
Actual result D+34.2 · backtest (race already called)

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

0.0%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

—

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

—

no recent coverage

Where this race stands

Verified

Safe D · model 99% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+18) suggests Safe D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+32.9 with an 80% CI ranging from D+20.9 (10th pctile) to D+44.9 (90th pctile), giving D a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · safe-d

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

D +32.9

80% CI: D +20.9 → D +44.9 · win prob 99%

R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	0
Days to election	passed
Actual result	D+34.2
Residual σ	6.00pt
Generated	7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet

DRobin Kelly0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

RThomas Lynch0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-12-07

Robin KellyH2IL02172 ↗

Receipts

$1.7M

Disburse

$1.3M

Cash on hand

$1.4M

Debts

Top industries

Education$18.8K

Govt employees$9.7K

Real estate$5.8K

Insurance$5.8K

Top contributors

UNIVERSITY OF INDIANA$12.8K

STATE OF ILLINOIS$9.7K

UNIVERSITY OF CHICAGO MEDICINE$6.0K

ARIEL INVESTMENTS LLC$5.8K

@PROPERTIES$5.8K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports

IE total

$26.8K

D side

$26.8K · 100%

R side

$0 · 0%

Top spender

ILLINOIS AGRICULTUR…

For / against split

For Kelly $26.8K

Spender	Side	Amount	Share	Target
ILLINOIS AGRICULTURAL ASSOCIATION ACTIVATOR POLITICAL INVOLVEMENT FUND (FED) 'ACTIVATOR'/'ILLINOIS FARM BUREAU ACTIVATOR'	D	$26.0K	97%	for Robin Kelly
POLICE ASSISTANCE FOUNDATION PAC	D	$810.08	3%	for Robin Kelly
HUMAN RIGHTS CAMPAIGN EQUALITY VOTES	D	$9	0%	for Robin Kelly

Editorial ratings · 6 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Safe D6

The Cook Political Report

Safe D

Nov 29

DDHQ

Safe D

Jul 19

The Economist

Safe D

Sep 27

538

Safe D

Jun 29

Inside Elections

Safe D

Jan 27

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Safe D

Dec 1

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.

Rating timeline

May 11, 2026Safe Dmodel

Verification trail

Polls verified0 / 0deterministic

Polls flagged—none

Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed

FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2022-12-07

Endorsements—nothing to sync

News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News

Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks