Races · house · 2022 · Illinois

house · open seat

Eric Sorensen vs Esther Joy King

← Illinois house Indiana house →

Likely DD +7.5 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets

Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
90% Sorensen (D)
10% King (R)
Win probability
Eric Sorensen90% (D)
Esther Joy King10% (R)
Modelpoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateD +7.5
80% CIR+4.5 → D+19.5
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Model's predicted final margin D +7.5 · 80% CI R+4.5 → D+19.5
Actual result D+4.0 · backtest (race already called)

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

0.0%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

—

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

—

no recent coverage

Where this race stands

Verified

Tilt D · model 90% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+3) suggests Tilt D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+7.5 with an 80% CI ranging from R+4.5 (10th pctile) to D+19.5 (90th pctile), giving D a 90% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · tilt-d

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

D +7.5

80% CI: R +4.5 → D +19.5 · win prob 90%

R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	0
Days to election	passed
Actual result	D+4.0
Residual σ	6.00pt
Generated	7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet

DEric Sorensen0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

REsther Joy King0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-12-07

Eric SorensenH2IL17147 ↗

Receipts

$3.1M

Disburse

$3.1M

Cash on hand

$40.9K

Debts

Top industries

Education$15.6K

Internet$10.2K

Computers / electronics$8.1K

Govt employees$5.9K

Top contributors

GOOGLE$10.2K

NORTHWESTERN UNIVERSITY$9.7K

APPLE$8.1K

BRADLEY UNIVERSITY$5.9K

STATE OF ILLINOIS$5.9K

Esther Joy KingH0IL17083 ↗

Receipts

$5.1M

Disburse

$5.0M

Cash on hand

$79.1K

Debts

Top industries

Lawyers / law firms$14.8K

Securities & investment$11.6K

Electric utilities$11.6K

Top contributors

INFORMATION REQUESTED PER BEST EFFORTS$63.7K

KIRKLAND & ELLIS LLP$14.8K

JUPITER MANAGEMENT$11.6K

ABERCROMBIE KENT$11.6K

BLACKSTONE$11.6K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports

IE total

$34.0M

D side

$17.0M · 50%

R side

$17.1M · 50%

Top spender

CONGRESSIONAL LEADE…

For / against split

For Sorensen $1.4M

Against King $15.5M

Against Sorensen $16.3M

For King $731.1K

Spender	Side	Amount	Share	Target
CONGRESSIONAL LEADERSHIP FUND	R	$11.9M	35%	against Eric Sorensen
HOUSE MAJORITY PAC	D	$11.8M	35%	against Esther Joy King
DCCC	D	$4.5M	13%	against Esther Joy King
NRCC	R	$4.5M	13%	against Eric Sorensen
DMFI PAC	D	$300.0K	1%	against Esther Joy King
EQUALITY PAC	D	$274.8K	1%	against Esther Joy King
DEFENDING THE REPUBLIC PAC INC.	R	$269.0K	1%	for Esther Joy King
NO VOTE LEFT BEHIND PAC	D	$37.6K	0%	for Eric Sorensen

Editorial ratings · 6 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Lean D1

Tossup3

Lean R2

The Cook Political Report

Tossup

Nov 29

DDHQ

Lean R

Oct 5

The Economist

Tossup

Nov 7

538

Lean D

Sep 28

Inside Elections

Tossup

Nov 2

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Lean R

Nov 6

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.

Rating timeline

May 11, 2026Likely Dmodel

Verification trail

Polls verified0 / 0deterministic

Polls flagged—none

Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed

FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2022-12-07

Endorsements—nothing to sync

News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News

Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks