Races · house · 2022 · Illinois
house · open seat
Elizabeth Haderlein vs Darin LaHood
Where this race stands
VerifiedLikely R · model 99% R
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+11) suggests Likely R.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+23.8 with an 80% CI ranging from R+35.8 (10th pctile) to R+11.8 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.
CITATIONS · likely-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +23.8
80% CI: R +35.8 → R +11.8 · win prob 1%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | passed |
| Actual result | R+32.6 |
| Residual σ | 6.00pt |
| Generated | 7/1/2026 |
Endorsements · 0 total
Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yetRDarin LaHood0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DElizabeth Haderlein0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-12-07Darin LaHoodH6IL18088 ↗
Receipts
$3.9M
Disburse
$3.0M
Cash on hand
$4.0M
Debts
$0
Top industries
Securities & investment$33.1K
Securities & investment · $33.1K
- Apollo Global Management, INC. · $20.2K
- Blackstone · $12.9K
Individuals $33.1K · PACs $0
Insurance$16.7K
Insurance · $16.7K
- New York Life Insurance Company · $16.7K
Individuals $16.7K · PACs $0
Top contributors
APOLLO GLOBAL MANAGEMENT, INC.$20.2K
MARQUIS MANAGEMENT, INC.$17.4K
NEW YORK LIFE INSURANCE COMPANY$16.7K
UNITED CONTRACTORS MIDWEST$14.9K
BREAKTHRU BEVERAGE$14.1K
Elizabeth Haderlein
Receipts
$38.1K
Disburse
$38.1K
Cash on hand
$0
Debts
$0
Top industries
Lawyers / law firms$2.9K
Lawyers / law firms · $2.9K
- Dady Law Group, Rockford · $2.9K
Individuals $2.9K · PACs $0
Health professionals$350
Health professionals · $350
- Osf Saint Francis Medical Center · $350
Individuals $350 · PACs $0
Top contributors
DADY LAW GROUP, ROCKFORD$2.9K
UWHEALTH NORTHERN ILLINOIS$1.0K
ALGONQUIN AREA PUBLIC LIBRARY$520
OSF SAINT FRANCIS MEDICAL CENTER$350
AMOB$250
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$43.9K
D side
$0 · 0%
R side
$43.9K · 100%
Top spender
PA LAWYER FUND
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PA LAWYER FUND super pac · boosts R
| R | $30.0K | 68% | for Darin LaHood |
| ILLINOIS AGRICULTURAL ASSOCIATION ACTIVATOR POLITICAL INVOLVEMENT FUND (FED) 'ACTIVATOR'/'ILLINOIS FARM BUREAU ACTIVATOR' pac · boosts R
| R | $13.9K | 32% | for Darin LaHood |
Editorial ratings · 6 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe R6
Safe R · 6 raters
- The Cook Political Report · Nov 29
- DDHQ · Jul 19
- The Economist · Sep 27
- 538 · Jun 29
- Inside Elections · Jan 27
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Dec 1
The Cook Political Report
Safe RDDHQ
Safe RThe Economist
Safe R538
Safe RInside Elections
Safe RSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe RDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2022-12-07
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks