Races · house · 2022 · Illinois

house · open seat

Lauren Underwood vs Scott Gryder

← Illinois house Illinois house →

Likely DD +9.9 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets

Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
95% Underwood (D)
5% Gryder (R)
Win probability
Lauren Underwood95% (D)
Scott Gryder5% (R)
Modelpoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateD +9.9
80% CIR+2.1 → D+21.9
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Model's predicted final margin D +9.9 · 80% CI R+2.1 → D+21.9
Actual result D+8.4 · backtest (race already called)

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

0.0%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

—

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

—

no recent coverage

Where this race stands

Verified

Tilt D · model 95% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+3) suggests Tilt D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+9.9 with an 80% CI ranging from R+2.1 (10th pctile) to D+21.9 (90th pctile), giving D a 95% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · tilt-d

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

D +9.9

80% CI: R +2.1 → D +21.9 · win prob 95%

R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	0
Days to election	passed
Actual result	D+8.4
Residual σ	6.00pt
Generated	7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet

DLauren Underwood0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

RScott Gryder0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-11-08

Scott GryderH2IL14102 ↗

Receipts

$658.3K

Disburse

$645.1K

Cash on hand

$13.2K

Debts

$43.2K

Top industries

Lawyers / law firms$5.8K

Crop production$4.0K

Top contributors

DOLAN & MURPHY INC$8.0K

NICOR SERVICES$5.8K

NEAR NORTH TITLE GROUP, LLC$5.8K

KIRKLAND ELLIS LLP$5.8K

NELSON ENTERPRISES, INC$4.9K

Lauren UnderwoodH8IL14174 ↗

Receipts

$6.9M

Disburse

$6.6M

Cash on hand

$787.1K

Debts

Top industries

Education$86.9K

Lawyers / law firms$17.7K

Health professionals$12.1K

Computers / electronics$11.4K

Top contributors

UNIVERSITY OF CHICAGO$42.3K

NORTHWESTERN UNIVERSITY$31.6K

KIRKLAND & ELLIS, LLP$17.7K

BLUE SHIELD OF CALIFORNIA$15.6K

ELEVANCE HEALTH$14.6K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports

IE total

$2.6M

D side

$2.5M · 99%

R side

$36.3K · 1%

Top spender

HOUSE MAJORITY PAC

For / against split

For Underwood $790.1K

Against Gryder $1.7M

Against Underwood $20.8K

For Gryder $15.5K

Spender	Side	Amount	Share	Target
HOUSE MAJORITY PAC	D	$1.5M	59%	against Scott Gryder
AMERICAN ASSOCIATION OF NURSE ANESTHETISTS SEPARATE SEGREGATED FUND (CRNA-PAC)	D	$255.0K	10%	for Lauren Underwood
EDF ACTION VOTES	D	$219.1K	9%	against Scott Gryder
LCV VICTORY FUND	D	$211.7K	8%	for Lauren Underwood
CLIMATE POWER ACTION	D	$205.0K	8%	for Lauren Underwood
INDIVISIBLE ACTION	D	$85.9K	3%	for Lauren Underwood
MOMSRISING TOGETHER	D	$19.7K	1%	for Lauren Underwood
RESTORATION PAC	R	$15.5K	1%	for Scott Gryder

Editorial ratings · 6 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Likely D4

Lean D2

The Cook Political Report

Lean D

Oct 31

DDHQ

Likely D

Oct 16

The Economist

Likely D

Sep 27

538

Likely D

Jun 29

Inside Elections

Likely D

May 19

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Lean D

Dec 1

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.

Rating timeline

Jul 1, 2026Likely Dmodel

Jun 22, 2026Safe Dmodel

May 11, 2026Likely Dmodel

Verification trail

Polls verified0 / 0deterministic

Polls flagged—none

Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed

FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2022-11-08

Endorsements—nothing to sync

News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News

Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks