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Races · house · 2022 · Illinois
house · open seat

Nikki Budzinski vs Regan Deering

← Illinois houseIllinois house →
Lean DD +2.2 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
64% Budzinski (D)
36% Deering (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin D +2.2 · 80% CI R+9.8 → D+14.2
Actual result D+13.2 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Lean D · model 64% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+5) suggests Lean D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+2.2 with an 80% CI ranging from R+9.8 (10th pctile) to D+14.2 (90th pctile), giving D a 64% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · lean-d
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +2.2
80% CI: R +9.8 → D +14.2 · win prob 64%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultD+13.2
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet
DNikki Budzinski0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RRegan Deering0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-12-07
Regan DeeringH2IL13179 ↗
Receipts
$2.1M
Disburse
$2.1M
Cash on hand
$4.7K
Debts
$1.0M
Top industries
Crop production$18.4K
Real estate$8.9K
Education$5.9K
Top contributors
ADM$18.4K
MAIN PLACE PROPERTIES$8.9K
SSC$6.3K
SWEETENER SUPPLY$6.0K
ST. BARTHOLOMEW SCHOOL$5.9K
Nikki BudzinskiH2IL13153 ↗
Receipts
$3.9M
Disburse
$3.9M
Cash on hand
$41.7K
Debts
$0
Top industries
Lawyers / law firms$30.2K
Govt employees$26.9K
Education$22.5K
Internet$16.4K
Insurance$15.0K
Top contributors
STATE OF ILLINOIS$26.9K
SIMMONS HANLY CONROY, LLC$21.5K
THE GORI LAW FIRM$18.6K
SIMMONS HANLY CONROY$18.3K
DEWEY SQUARE GROUP$16.4K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$13.9M
D side
$13.7M · 98%
R side
$231.6K · 2%
Top spender
HOUSE MAJORITY PAC
For / against split
For Budzinski $1.1M
Against Deering $12.6M
For Deering $231.6K
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
HOUSE MAJORITY PACD$9.5M68%against Regan Deering
WOMEN VOTE!D$3.6M26%against Regan Deering
PROTECT OUR FUTURE PACD$526.9K4%for Nikki Budzinski
DEFENDING THE REPUBLIC PAC INC.R$207.0K1%for Regan Deering
OPPORTUNITY FOR TOMORROWD$53.0K0%for Nikki Budzinski
LATE BREAKERS PACD$37.9K0%against Regan Deering
NATIONAL RIGHT TO LIFE VICTORY FUNDR$16.4K0%for Regan Deering
HUMANE SOCIETY LEGISLATIVE FUNDD$5.1K0%for Nikki Budzinski

Editorial ratings · 6 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Likely D2
Lean D2
Tilt D1
Tossup1
The Cook Political Report
Lean D
Sep 28
DDHQ
Tossup
Jul 19
The Economist
Likely D
Sep 27
538
Likely D
Jun 29
Inside Elections
Tilt D
Nov 2
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Lean D
Apr 18

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 11, 2026Lean Dmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2022-12-07
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks