Races · house · 2022 · Illinois

house · open seat

Bill Foster vs Catalina Lauf

← Illinois house Illinois house →

Likely DD +13.8 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets

Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
99% Foster (D)
1% Lauf (R)
Win probability
Bill Foster99% (D)
Catalina Lauf1% (R)
Modelpoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateD +13.8
80% CID+1.8 → D+25.8
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Model's predicted final margin D +13.8 · 80% CI D+1.8 → D+25.8
Actual result D+13.0 · backtest (race already called)

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

0.0%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

—

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

—

no recent coverage

Where this race stands

Verified

Lean D · model 99% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+6) suggests Lean D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+13.8 with an 80% CI ranging from D+1.8 (10th pctile) to D+25.8 (90th pctile), giving D a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · lean-d

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

D +13.8

80% CI: D +1.8 → D +25.8 · win prob 99%

R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	0
Days to election	passed
Actual result	D+13.0
Residual σ	6.00pt
Generated	7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet

DBill Foster0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

RCatalina Lauf0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-11-11

Bill FosterH8IL14067 ↗

Receipts

$3.3M

Disburse

$6.3M

Cash on hand

$805.1K

Debts

$1.0M

Top industries

Education$95.6K

Lawyers / law firms$10.1K

Top contributors

FERMILAB$23.4K

UNIVERSITY OF CHICAGO$22.5K

PRINCETON UNIVERSITY$21.1K

NORTHWESTERN UNIVERSITY$18.4K

ARGONNE NATIONAL LABORATORY$14.2K

Catalina LaufH2IL16107 ↗

Receipts

$2.8M

Disburse

$2.7M

Cash on hand

$52.2K

Debts

Top industries

No industry data.

Top contributors

WOODFOREST NATIONAL BANK$13.8K

FISHER INVESTMENTS, INC.$5.8K

ARSENAL MEDIA GROUP$5.8K

INSPERITY$5.8K

JSSI$5.8K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports

IE total

$2.1M

D side

$87.51 · 0%

R side

$2.1M · 100%

Top spender

CLUB FOR GROWTH ACTION

For / against split

For Foster $87.51

Against Foster $1.6M

For Lauf $442.6K

Spender	Side	Amount	Share	Target
CLUB FOR GROWTH ACTION	R	$1.8M	86%	against Bill Foster
RESTORATION PAC	R	$133.6K	7%	against Bill Foster
DEFENDING THE REPUBLIC PAC INC.	R	$103.5K	5%	for Catalina Lauf
CLUB FOR GROWTH PAC	R	$20.9K	1%	for Catalina Lauf
HOUSE CONSERVATIVES PAC	R	$19.3K	1%	for Catalina Lauf
ILLINOIS AGRICULTURAL ASSOCIATION ACTIVATOR POLITICAL INVOLVEMENT FUND (FED) 'ACTIVATOR'/'ILLINOIS FARM BUREAU ACTIVATOR'	D	$68.83	0%	for Bill Foster
SIERRA CLUB INDEPENDENT ACTION	D	$10	0%	for Bill Foster
PLANNED PARENTHOOD VOTES	D	$8.68	0%	for Bill Foster

Editorial ratings · 6 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Safe D2

Likely D4

The Cook Political Report

Likely D

Apr 26

DDHQ

Likely D

Jul 19

The Economist

Likely D

Sep 27

538

Safe D

Sep 28

Inside Elections

Safe D

Jan 27

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Likely D

Dec 1

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.

Rating timeline

Jul 1, 2026Likely Dmodel

May 11, 2026Safe Dmodel

Verification trail

Polls verified0 / 0deterministic

Polls flagged—none

Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed

FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2022-11-11

Endorsements—nothing to sync

News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News

Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks