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Races · house · 2022 · Iowa
PrimariesThis seat also has primary-season views:Republican primary
house · open seat

Cindy Axne vs Moore Information Group

← Iowa houseIowa house →
Lean DD +3.7 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
73% Axne (D)
27% Group (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin D +3.7 · 80% CI R+8.3 → D+15.7
Actual result R+0.6 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Tilt R · model 73% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+2) suggests Tilt R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+3.7 with an 80% CI ranging from R+8.3 (10th pctile) to D+15.7 (90th pctile), giving D a 73% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · tilt-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +3.7
80% CI: R +8.3 → D +15.7 · win prob 73%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultR+0.6
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet
RMoore Information Group0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DCindy Axne0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-11-08
Cindy AxneH8IA03124 ↗
Receipts
$7.2M
Disburse
$7.2M
Cash on hand
$4.6K
Debts
$0
Top industries
Education$44.5K
Securities & investment$35.3K
Internet$26.2K
Real estate$9.7K
Top contributors
GOOGLE$26.2K
APOLLO GLOBAL MANAGEMENT$25.6K
IOWA STATE UNIVERSITY$13.1K
HARVARD UNIVERSITY$12.8K
TUFTS UNIVERSITY$9.7K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$14.1M
D side
$2.7M · 19%
R side
$11.5M · 81%
Top spender
NRCC
For / against split
For Axne $213.6K
Against Nunn $2.5M
Against Axne $9.4M
For Nunn $2.0M
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
NRCCR$5.4M38%against Cindy Axne
AMERICAN PATRIOTS PACR$1.6M11%against Cindy Axne
CONGRESSIONAL LEADERSHIP FUNDR$1.3M10%against Cindy Axne
DEFEND US PACR$602.8K4%against Cindy Axne
WOMEN SPEAK OUT PACR$299.9K2%against Cindy Axne

Editorial ratings · 6 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Tossup3
Tilt R1
Lean R2
The Cook Political Report
Lean R
Aug 31
DDHQ
Tossup
Sep 22
The Economist
Tossup
Sep 27
FiveThirtyEight
Tossup
Nov 7
Inside Elections
Tilt R
Nov 2
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Lean R
Sep 6

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Jun 22, 2026Lean Dmodel
May 11, 2026Likely Dmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2022-11-08
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks