Races · house · 2022 · Georgia

house · open seat

Lucy McBath vs Mark Gonsalves

← Georgia house Georgia house →

Likely RR +8.4 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets

Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
8% McBath (D)
92% Gonsalves (R)
Win probability
Lucy McBath8% (D)
Mark Gonsalves92% (R)
Modelpoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateR +8.4
80% CIR+20.4 → D+3.5
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Model's predicted final margin R +8.4 · 80% CI R+20.4 → D+3.5
Actual result D+22.2 · backtest (race already called)

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

0.0%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

—

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

—

no recent coverage

Where this race stands

Verified

Likely R · model 92% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+11) suggests Likely R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+8.4 with an 80% CI ranging from R+20.4 (10th pctile) to D+3.5 (90th pctile), giving R a 92% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · likely-r

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

R +8.4

80% CI: R +20.4 → D +3.5 · win prob 8%

R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	0
Days to election	passed
Actual result	D+22.2
Residual σ	6.00pt
Generated	7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet

DLucy McBath0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

RMark Gonsalves0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-11-11

Mark GonsalvesH0GA07232 ↗

Receipts

$567.4K

Disburse

$564.5K

Cash on hand

$2.9K

Debts

Top industries

Real estate$3.5K

Top contributors

RELIABLE ROOFING$8.8K

NORTHWESTERN MUTUAL$6.9K

DNR CONSTRUCTION LLC$5.0K

COASTAL TELEVISION$3.9K

WEAVER CAPITAL MANAGEMENT$3.5K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports

IE total

$11.1K

D side

$37.77 · 0%

R side

$11.1K · 100%

Top spender

FRONTLINE POLICY AC…

For / against split

Against Gonsalves $37.77

For Gonsalves $11.1K

Spender	Side	Amount	Share	Target
FRONTLINE POLICY ACTION INC	R	$6.1K	55%	for Mark Gonsalves
STAND FOR FREEDOM PAC	R	$5.0K	45%	for Mark Gonsalves
PLANNED PARENTHOOD VOTES	D	$37.77	0%	against Mark Gonsalves
DEFENDING THE REPUBLIC PAC INC.	R	$2.07	0%	for Mark Gonsalves

Editorial ratings · 6 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Safe D6

The Cook Political Report

Safe D

Dec 29

DDHQ

Safe D

Jul 19

The Economist

Safe D

Sep 27

538

Safe D

Jun 29

Inside Elections

Safe D

Feb 3

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Safe D

Jan 3

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.

Rating timeline

Jul 1, 2026Likely Rmodel

May 15, 2026Tilt Rmodel

May 11, 2026Likely Dmodel

Verification trail

Polls verified0 / 0deterministic

Polls flagged—none

Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed

FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2022-11-11

Endorsements—nothing to sync

News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News

Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks