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Races · house · 2022 · Georgia
PrimariesThis seat also has primary-season views:Republican primary
house · open seat

Sanford Bishop vs Chris West

← Georgia houseGeorgia house →
Likely DD +10.2 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
95% Bishop (D)
5% West (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin D +10.2 · 80% CI R+1.9 → D+22.1
Actual result D+10.0 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Lean D · model 95% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+4) suggests Lean D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+10.2 with an 80% CI ranging from R+1.9 (10th pctile) to D+22.1 (90th pctile), giving D a 95% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · lean-d
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +10.2
80% CI: R +1.9 → D +22.1 · win prob 95%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultD+10.0
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet
DSanford Bishop0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RChris West0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-11-11
Chris WestH2GA02155 ↗
Receipts
$1.0M
Disburse
$999.8K
Cash on hand
$20.8K
Debts
$11.4K
Top industries
Oil & gas$8.1K
Top contributors
FERNLEAF$17.4K
TERAMORE DEVELOPMENT, LLC$8.7K
SUSIE Q$8.7K
FULKEN STEEL$8.2K
PLANTATION PETROLEUM$8.1K
Sanford BishopH2GA02031 ↗
Receipts
$3.0M
Disburse
$3.2M
Cash on hand
$54.2K
Debts
$0
Top industries
Education$5.9K
Top contributors
AFLAC$25.8K
THEGROUP$14.4K
STONE BANK$11.7K
SCHUSTERMAN FAMILY PHILANTHROPIES$11.6K
THOMAS USAF GROUP$9.1K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$6.9M
D side
$6.8M · 98%
R side
$131.4K · 2%
Top spender
DCCC
For / against split
For Bishop $1.0M
Against West $5.8M
For West $131.4K
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
DCCCD$4.4M64%against Chris West
HOUSE MAJORITY PACD$1.2M17%against Chris West
CONGRESSIONAL BLACK CAUCUS PACD$410.1K6%for Sanford Bishop
AMERICAN PATRIOTS PACD$319.5K5%against Chris West
UNITED FOOD AND COMMERCIAL WORKERS INTERNATIONAL UNION WORKING FAMILIES ADVOCACY PROJECTD$205.5K3%for Sanford Bishop
CENTER FORWARD COMMITTEED$150.0K2%for Sanford Bishop
UNITED WE CAND$73.2K1%for Sanford Bishop
RED CLAY VALUESR$70.9K1%for Chris West
BLACK AMERICANS MAKING AMERICA FIRSTR$50.4K1%for Chris West

Editorial ratings · 6 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Safe D1
Likely D4
Lean D1
The Cook Political Report
Likely D
Dec 29
DDHQ
Likely D
Jul 19
The Economist
Lean D
Oct 31
538
Likely D
Oct 17
Inside Elections
Safe D
Oct 20
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Likely D
Jul 27

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 15, 2026Likely Dmodel
May 11, 2026Safe Dmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2022-11-11
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks