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Races · house · 2022 · Florida
house · open seat

Darren Soto vs Scotty Moore

← Florida houseFlorida house →
Likely DD +10.6 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
96% Soto (D)
4% Moore (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin D +10.6 · 80% CI R+1.4 → D+22.6
Actual result D+7.2 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Lean D · model 96% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+4) suggests Lean D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+10.6 with an 80% CI ranging from R+1.4 (10th pctile) to D+22.6 (90th pctile), giving D a 96% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · lean-d
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +10.6
80% CI: R +1.4 → D +22.6 · win prob 96%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultD+7.2
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet
DDarren Soto0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RScotty Moore0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-11-17
Scotty MooreH2FL09228 ↗
Receipts
$601.2K
Disburse
$599.2K
Cash on hand
$2.0K
Debts
$0
Top industries
Real estate$13.7K
Top contributors
PTC$14.5K
MARTIN AQUATIC DESIGN & ENGINEERING$8.9K
AC GUARD$8.8K
FINE INK STUDIOS$8.0K
BOB HARRELL PROPERTIES$7.9K
Darren SotoH6FL09179 ↗
Receipts
$1.3M
Disburse
$1.4M
Cash on hand
$64.3K
Debts
$0
Top industries
Education$3.5K
Top contributors
DIGITAL CURRENCY GROUP$10.3K
LSN PARTNERS$9.6K
BLOCKCHAIN ASSOCIATION$5.8K
BREAKTHROUGH ENERGY$5.8K
ROCKET COMPANIES$5.8K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$76.0K
D side
$12.3K · 16%
R side
$63.7K · 84%
Top spender
HOUSE FREEDOM ACTION
For / against split
For Soto $12.3K
For Moore $63.7K
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
HOUSE FREEDOM ACTIONR$56.7K75%for Scotty Moore
UNITED FOR PROGRESS PACD$9.6K13%for Darren Soto
HOUSE FREEDOM FUNDR$7.0K9%for Scotty Moore
FLORIDA FREEDOM PACD$2.7K4%for Darren Soto
SIERRA CLUB INDEPENDENT ACTIOND$100%for Darren Soto
PLANNED PARENTHOOD VOTESD$8.680%for Darren Soto

Editorial ratings · 6 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Safe D5
Likely D1
The Cook Political Report
Safe D
Apr 24
DDHQ
Safe D
Jul 19
The Economist
Likely D
Oct 31
538
Safe D
Jun 29
Inside Elections
Safe D
May 16
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Safe D
Apr 26

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Jul 1, 2026Likely Dmodel
Jun 22, 2026Safe Dmodel
May 15, 2026Likely Dmodel
May 11, 2026Safe Dmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2022-11-17
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks