Races · house · 2022 · Florida
house · open seat
Joanne Terry vs Bill Posey
Where this race stands
VerifiedLikely R · model 99% R
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+11) suggests Likely R.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+23.5 with an 80% CI ranging from R+35.5 (10th pctile) to R+11.5 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.
CITATIONS · likely-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +23.5
80% CI: R +35.5 → R +11.5 · win prob 1%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | passed |
| Actual result | R+29.8 |
| Residual σ | 6.00pt |
| Generated | 7/1/2026 |
Endorsements · 0 total
Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yetRBill Posey0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DJoanne Terry0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-10-27Bill PoseyH8FL15107 ↗
Receipts
$1.0M
Disburse
$777.6K
Cash on hand
$423.0K
Debts
$0
Top industries
Real estate$19.1K
Real estate · $19.1K
- Remi Properties, INC. · $7.5K
- Premier Estate Properties · $5.8K
- Weston Real Estate Investment Corp. · $5.8K
Individuals $19.1K · PACs $0
Pharma / health products$5.8K
Pharma / health products · $5.8K
- Nexus Pharmaceuticals · $5.8K
Individuals $5.8K · PACs $0
Top contributors
L3HARRIS TECHNOLOGIES$22.5K
AMSCOT FINANCIAL, INC.$8.7K
PORTER & KORVICK, P.A.$8.3K
REMI PROPERTIES, INC.$7.5K
DSU, LLC$5.8K
Joanne Terry
Receipts
$89.9K
Disburse
$89.2K
Cash on hand
$760.43
Debts
$7.0K
Top industries
Air transport$2.9K
Air transport · $2.9K
- Southwest Airlines · $2.9K
Individuals $2.9K · PACs $0
Govt employees$750
Govt employees · $750
- City of Melbourne · $750
Individuals $750 · PACs $0
Commercial banks$398
Commercial banks · $398
- Wells Fargo · $398
Individuals $398 · PACs $0
Computers / electronics$349
Computers / electronics · $349
- Ibm · $349
Individuals $349 · PACs $0
Top contributors
SOUTHWEST AIRLINES$2.9K
BLUE ORIGIN$2.9K
PREFER TO NOT TO SAY$750
CITY OF MELBOURNE$750
DRAGONPOINT SW, INC$632
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$1.4K
D side
$0 · 0%
R side
$1.4K · 100%
Top spender
POLICE ASSISTANCE F…
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| POLICE ASSISTANCE FOUNDATION PAC super pac · boosts R
| R | $1.2K | 85% | for Bill Posey |
| HOUSE FREEDOM FUND pac · boosts R
| R | $210 | 15% | for Bill Posey |
Editorial ratings · 6 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe R6
Safe R · 6 raters
- The Cook Political Report · Apr 24
- DDHQ · Jul 19
- The Economist · Sep 27
- 538 · Jun 29
- Inside Elections · May 16
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Apr 26
The Cook Political Report
Safe RDDHQ
Safe RThe Economist
Safe R538
Safe RInside Elections
Safe RSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe RDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2022-10-27
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks