Races · house · 2022 · Florida

house · open seat

Florida house

← Florida house Florida house →

Likely RR +11.5 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets

Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
3% (D)
97% Jetta (R)
Win probability
Democrat3% (D)
Kurt Jetta97% (R)
Modelpoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateR +11.5
80% CIR+23.5 → D+0.5
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Model's predicted final margin R +11.5 · 80% CI R+23.5 → D+0.5
Actual result Cory Mills +17.0 · backtest (race already called)

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

0.0%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

—

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

—

no recent coverage

Where this race stands

Verified

Lean R · model 97% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+5) suggests Lean R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+11.5 with an 80% CI ranging from R+23.5 (10th pctile) to tied (90th pctile), giving R a 97% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · lean-r

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

R +11.5

80% CI: R +23.5 → D +0.5 · win prob 3%

R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	0
Days to election	passed
Actual result	Cory Mills +17.0
Residual σ	6.00pt
Generated	7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yet

RKurt Jetta0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Editorial ratings · 6 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Likely R1

Safe R5

The Cook Political Report

Safe R

Oct 4

DDHQ

Safe R

Jul 19

The Economist

Safe R

Sep 27

538

Safe R

Jun 29

Inside Elections

Likely R

May 16

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Safe R

Jul 27

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.

Rating timeline

Jun 22, 2026Likely Rmodel

May 15, 2026Tilt Rmodel

May 11, 2026Lean Rmodel

Verification trail

Polls verified0 / 0deterministic

Polls flagged—none

Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed

FEC filings—no filings yet

Endorsements—nothing to sync

News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News

Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks