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Races · house · 2022 · Florida
house · open seat

Danielle Hawk vs Kat Cammack

← Florida houseFlorida house →
Safe RR +22.9 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
1% Hawk (D)
99% Cammack (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin R +22.9 · 80% CI R+34.9 → R+10.9
Actual result R+26.2 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Likely R · model 99% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+10) suggests Likely R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+22.9 with an 80% CI ranging from R+34.9 (10th pctile) to R+10.9 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · likely-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +22.9
80% CI: R +34.9 → R +10.9 · win prob 1%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultR+26.2
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 3 candidates with no endorsements yet
RKat Cammack0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DDanielle Hawk0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
ILinda Brooks0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-11-10
Kat CammackH0FL03175 ↗
Receipts
$2.3M
Disburse
$2.3M
Cash on hand
$39.4K
Debts
$0
Top industries
Computers / electronics$11.6K
Oil & gas$10.8K
Health professionals$8.7K
Education$7.0K
Top contributors
GLEIM PUBLICATIONS$23.2K
RED APPLE GROUP$11.6K
ULINE$11.6K
GASTON TREE SERVICES$10.8K
DAB CONTRACTORS$10.0K
Danielle HawkH2FL03163 ↗
Receipts
$83.3K
Disburse
$71.5K
Cash on hand
$5.3K
Debts
$0
Top industries
Education$4.3K
Health professionals$330
Top contributors
ST JOHNS RIVER STATE COLLEGE$3.0K
K ROWE INVESTMENTS LLC$2.9K
UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA$1.3K
IMPACT INDUSTRY$1.0K
SBAC$500

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$1.2M
D side
$4.36 · 0%
R side
$1.2M · 100%
Top spender
AMERICANS FOR PROSP…
For / against split
For Hawk $4.36
For Cammack $1.2M
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTIONR$740.9K61%for Kat Cammack
AMERICAN DREAMS PACR$465.0K38%for Kat Cammack
DISABLED VETERANS PACR$1.4K0%for Kat Cammack
THE GUARDIAN FUNDR$9020%for Kat Cammack
EVERYTOWN FOR GUN SAFETY VICTORY FUND (EVERYTOWN VICTORY FUND)D$4.360%for Danielle Hawk

Editorial ratings · 6 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Safe R6
The Cook Political Report
Safe R
Apr 24
DDHQ
Safe R
Jul 19
The Economist
Safe R
Sep 27
538
Safe R
Jun 29
Inside Elections
Safe R
May 16
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Safe R
Apr 26

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 11, 2026Safe Rmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2022-11-10
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks