Races · house · 2022 · Florida

house · open seat

Robert Asencio vs The Political Matrix

← Florida house Georgia house →

Safe RR +22.8 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets

Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
1% Asencio (D)
99% Matrix (R)
Win probability
Robert Asencio1% (D)
The Political Matrix99% (R)
Modelpoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateR +22.8
80% CIR+34.8 → R+10.8
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Model's predicted final margin R +22.8 · 80% CI R+34.8 → R+10.8
Actual result Carlos Giménez +27.4 · backtest (race already called)

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

0.0%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

—

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

—

no recent coverage

Where this race stands

Verified

Likely R · model 99% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+10) suggests Likely R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+22.8 with an 80% CI ranging from R+34.8 (10th pctile) to R+10.8 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · likely-r

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

R +22.8

80% CI: R +34.8 → R +10.8 · win prob 1%

R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	0
Days to election	passed
Actual result	Carlos Giménez +27.4
Residual σ	6.00pt
Generated	7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet

DRobert Asencio0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

RThe Political Matrix0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-10-27

Robert AsencioH2FL28038 ↗

Receipts

$124.8K

Disburse

$123.5K

Cash on hand

$-15,282.84

Debts

Top industries

Health professionals$6.3K

Top contributors

MIRZA GROUP INC$5.8K

MDCPS$2.4K

BORINQUEN HEALTH CARE CENTER INC.$2.0K

G & R STRATEGIES LLC$2.0K

EYECAST$1.5K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports

IE total

$60.3K

D side

$60.3K · 100%

R side

$0 · 0%

Top spender

DEMOCRATS SERVE

For / against split

For Asencio $60.3K

Spender	Side	Amount	Share	Target
DEMOCRATS SERVE	D	$60.0K	99%	for Robert Asencio
UNITED FOR PROGRESS PAC	D	$342	1%	for Robert Asencio

Editorial ratings · 6 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Likely R1

Safe R5

The Cook Political Report

Safe R

Apr 24

DDHQ

Safe R

Jul 19

The Economist

Likely R

Sep 27

538

Safe R

Jun 29

Inside Elections

Safe R

May 16

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Safe R

Jul 27

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.

Rating timeline

May 11, 2026Safe Rmodel

Verification trail

Polls verified0 / 0deterministic

Polls flagged—none

Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed

FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2022-10-27

Endorsements—nothing to sync

News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News

Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks