NonpartisanIndependent, data-first coverage of US elections — polls, forecasts, and prediction markets, refreshed daily.Updated daily.What's new ↗·Methodology·Send feedback
Races · house · 2022 · Florida
PrimariesThis seat also has primary-season views:Democratic primary
house · open seat

Annette Taddeo vs Elvira Salazar

← Florida houseFlorida house →
Safe RR +15.1 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
1% Taddeo (D)
99% Salazar (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin R +15.1 · 80% CI R+27.1 → R+3.1
Actual result Maria Elvira Salazar +14.6 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Lean R · model 99% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+6) suggests Lean R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+15.1 with an 80% CI ranging from R+27.1 (10th pctile) to R+3.1 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · lean-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +15.1
80% CI: R +27.1 → R +3.1 · win prob 1%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultMaria Elvira Salazar +14.6
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet
RElvira Salazar0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DAnnette Taddeo0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-12-13
Annette TaddeoH8FL00034 ↗
Receipts
$1.9M
Disburse
$1.9M
Cash on hand
$13.8K
Debts
$393.5K
Top industries
Education$15.0K
Lawyers / law firms$12.9K
TV / movies / music$6.8K
Top contributors
UNIVERSITY OF MIAMI$15.0K
MIRZA GROUP INC$8.7K
STEARNS WEAVER MILLER$6.9K
US HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES$6.8K
STEWART TILGHMAN FOX BIANCHI & CAIN P.$6.8K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$4.6M
D side
$1.3M · 29%
R side
$3.3M · 71%
Top spender
CONGRESSIONAL LEADE…
For / against split
For Taddeo $1.3M
Against Taddeo $3.3M
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
CONGRESSIONAL LEADERSHIP FUNDR$3.0M64%against Annette Taddeo
FLORIDA FREEDOM PACD$537.1K12%for Annette Taddeo
LATINO VICTORY FUNDD$400.0K9%for Annette Taddeo
SEIU COPE (SERVICE EMPLOYEES INTERNATIONAL UNION COMMITTEE ON POLITICAL EDUCATION)D$234.3K5%for Annette Taddeo
AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTIONR$203.3K4%against Annette Taddeo

Editorial ratings · 6 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Tossup1
Likely R5
The Cook Political Report
Likely R
Nov 6
DDHQ
Likely R
Oct 6
The Economist
Tossup
Sep 27
538
Likely R
Jul 31
Inside Elections
Likely R
May 16
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Likely R
Apr 26

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Jun 22, 2026Safe Rmodel
May 11, 2026Likely Rmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2022-12-13
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks